EPL Game Week 7 Picks | Tottenham + Manchester United | 10/28

The following are EPL picks where I agree with the results driven by my betting model, and I feel comfortable placing at least a unit.

Favorite EPL Picks

Manchester United vs Arsenal: Manchester United Moneyline (+105)

Arsenal comes into this match with scoring struggles. They have failed to produce more than a goal in four of their last six games across all competitions. Those two games came against a weak Sheffield United side in the EPL and a lower-level competition in Rapid Wien. They are mid tier in the EPL in expected goals against at 7.9 and expected goals for at 6.5.

Manchester United is middle of the pack as well, with an expected goals against of 8.5 and an expected goals for of 6.5. The difference is Manchester United is trending upward, unlike their counterparts. They have registered two consecutive clean sheets against powerful offenses in Red Bull Leipzig and Chelsea. They held Paris Saint-Germain to just one goal a few matches ago and have seemingly put the Tottenham six goal thrashing behind them. You know things are looking up when Aaron Wan-Bissaka is scoring a goal.

I do not expect this line to stay at even money; it should end in the neighborhood of (-125) by kick off. I like Manchester United to handle Arsenal at home comfortably 3-1.

Tottenham vs Brighton & Hove Albion: Tottenham Moneyline (-160)

The ROI is not favorable, but the matchup for this Sunday EPL clash is. Brighton currently is second in defense in the EPL, with an expected goals of 5.6. This is helped by their easy matches early on. If you dig into the games against better sides in the EPL — Manchester United, Chelsea, Everton — you will find a shell of an EPL team. Brighton has been blasted by three or more goals across four matches with those clubs.

Now enters Tottenham, the second-highest-scoring offense in the EPL with an expected goals for of 11.4. Tottenham should have no issues securing a win in this match, and like the game above, I expect the line to drop by kickoff. I am not a fan of laying goals on the line, but you can get around even money with a -1 goal spread on Tottenham. That feels like value to me when you consider the team posses two of the top seven scorers in the EPL in Son Heung-Min and Harry Kane. I like Tottenham to win this game 2-0.

Bonus EPL Plays/Other Leagues

EPL: Liverpool vs. West Ham United: Over 3.5 goals (+107)

EPL: Newcastle vs. Everton: Everton Moneyline (-103)

Bundesliga: Borussia Dortmund Spread -2 (+220)

Bundesliga: Bayern Munich Over 3.5 (+125)


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Author
Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Stokastic to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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