EPL Game Week 5 Picks | Aston Villa + Everton | 10/14

Favorite plays will be EPL picks where I agree with the results driven by my betting model, and I feel comfortable placing at least a unit.

Favorite EPL Picks

Leicester City vs. Aston Villa: Aston Villa Moneyline (+310)

This matchup will be a tough task for the away side. You can get a bit safer with an Aston Villa double chance win or draw at (-103). Leicester City defense ranks mid-tier in the EPL with an expected goals against of 4.9. Their offense offense sits above average with an expected goals of 6.6. Aston Villa joins them in offensive expected output and ranks second best defense in the young season with an expected goals against of 3.3. Possession-wise, the teams are pretty close, with Leicester holding 55% and Villa holding 47.5%.

While Jamie Vardy can certainly rack up the goals, limiting his attempts is a big key for Villa, and keeper Emiliano Martinez has brought a comfort to the back line like he did towards the end of last year. Jack Grealish, John McGinn and Ollie Watkins are in top form currently, and I like their ability to go blow for blow with the Leicester back line that has allowed two or more goals in four of their last five matches, only shutting out an uninspired West Brom squad in their first game of promotion.

The over 2.5 goal total for the game is something to keep an eye on, but the return sits at (-164) which is less than ideal for a straight bet. I like Aston Villa to sneak away with this win 2-1.

Everton vs Liverpool: Everton Moneyline (+295)

The defending champions, Liverpool should bounce back from their slaughtering in their last match. The question really is the availability and form of Sadio Mane and Thiago, who both tested positive for COVID. Even if back, they might need a game to recover. If they are not in, I like Everton even more, but the home side still is in great form with James Rodriguez and Dominic Calvert-Lewin leading the scoring. I also expect Richarlison to be ready to go given he suited up for Brazil’s national team games during the break.

Liverpool are still the team to beat in the EPL with an expected goals for of 10.6, but their defense leaves some questions. Virgil Van Dyke has often been left on an Island to defend this season on counters, and his center-back counterpart is making life difficult for him. Liverpool’s defense is allowing 6.7 goals against, and their offense has been bailing them out, with the exception of a fine performance against Chelsea a few weeks back in a 2-0 victory.

I expect a high-scoring affair, and the over 3.5 goals is a solid play at +128 along with Everton win/draw double at -103. Everton’s offense ranks third in the EPL with an expected goals for of 8.6 and first in defense with an expected goals against of 2.9. I like Everton to stay perfect at home with a 3-2 victory.

Bonus EPL Plays/Other Leagues

EPL: Manchester City vs. Arsenal: Over 3.5 goals (+104)

EPL: West Bromwich vs. Burnley: Burnley Moneyline (+200)

Round Robin/Parlay Options

EPL: Tottenham Moneyline (-175)

EPL: Leeds United Moneyline (+145)

La Liga: Barcelona Moneyline (-139)

La Liga: Sevilla Moneyline (-114)

Bundesliga: Bayern Munich -1.5 (-190)

Liga MX: Monterrey Moneyline (-175).

EPL: Chelsea vs. Southampton Over 3.5 goals (+145)


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Author
Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Stokastic to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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