EPL Game Week 6 Picks | Chelsea + Manchester United | 10/22

The following are EPL picks where I agree with the results driven by my betting model, and I feel comfortable placing at least a unit.

Favorite EPL Picks

Aston Villa vs Leeds: Aston Villa Money line (+120)

This matchup features Aston Villa at home, sporting an expected goals of 4.9. The fourth-ranked home offense takes on a solid Leeds side which comes in better at home than on the road. Leeds’ away expected goals is fourth worst in the EPL at 2.1. The away side is also allowing the second-most expected goals on the road at 4.9. The price is dropping on the money line, already from +130 to +120 in favor of Aston Villa, and I like the play at any tag over even money.

Aston Villa is led by Jack Grealish, and the addition of Ross Barkley on loan has helped give another offensive option that can spread the defense off Grealish. Ollie Watkins continues to improve and has shown even the top EPL competition cannot keep him off the score sheet. Leeds is a club full with talent, but their defense is still continuing to leak chances and has relied on Illan Meslier to pull some stops out of a hat. He is allowing 1.9 goals a game and saving 62%. Leeds’ better defensive outings came at home against Manchester City, where they allowed one shot on target (which was a goal) and against the Wolves where they allowed three shots on target.

I like this EPL clash to end 2-1, and I give the advantage to the experience of Aston Villa.

Manchester United vs Chelsea: Over 3.5 goals (+155)

This is more of a play on the lack of goalkeeping for both clubs. Chelsea is below average in the EPL in expected goals against at 7.3. Manchester United’s defense is third worst in the EPL, with an expected goals against of 8.4. The safer play is the over 2.5 (-157), which I will lay heavier, but the juice makes sense to me with the offensive firepower both teams posses.

Chelsea has the services of stars playing together with Timo Werner, Kai Havertz and the return of Christian Pulisic. Manchester United has the ever-dangerous Bruno Fernandez, who continues his assault on opposing goalkeepers with over a goal or assist per outing for the club.

Manchester United is desperate for a home win, as their season got off to a disappointing start. I like their motivation against the club that torched them in the semifinals of last year’s FA Cup semi. Chelsea is not sitting comfortably in the standings after disappointing performances to clubs they should have beaten. I expect them to keep their foot on the pedal knowing no lead is safe.

The offenses will perform in this one, leaving more questions around Kepa Arrizabalaga’s and David De Gea’s futures. I see the match ending 3-2 with the winning goal coming off a defensive lapse in coverage.

Bonus EPL Plays/Other Leagues

EPL: Fulham vs. Crystal Palace: Crystal Palace Money line (+162)

EPL: Southampton vs. Everton: Everton Money line (+137)

La Liga: Barcelona vs. Real Madrid Draw (+260)

Bundesliga: Bayern Munich team total over 3.5 (+152)


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Author
Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Stokastic to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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