This article will examine the Week 4 NFL best bets for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New England Patriots Sunday Night Football game. Using the Awesemo NFL Betting Props Tool, bettors can utilize it to maximize their profits and see which bets have the highest expected return on investment for their NFL prop bets. Also, bettors can use OddsShopper to find which sportsbooks are offering the best prices for these prop bets. Here are the five best bets for tonight’s Sunday Night Football game.
FanDuel Week 4 NFL Best Bets: Sunday Night Football
Cameron Brate Over 2.50 Receptions
Brate is coming off a season-best performance last week against the Rams, catching four of five targets for 35 yards. He has five catches on six targets this year and has been on the field for just 35.72% of the Buccaneers’ offensive snaps. He is expected to see an uptick in playing time with Rob Gronkowski out this week due to a rib injury. O.J. Howard will also likely see a lot of playing time against the Patriots.
Brate is projected to have 3.62 receptions tonight, which seems reasonable given Brady has an affinity for throwing to tight ends. The Buccaneers tight ends have a combined 23 receptions (7.6 catches per game), 23.7% of the team’s catches and 21% of the squad’s targets this year. Brate has caught 47 passes from Brady in his career, with 10 games of three or more receptions. Awesemo’s projections have him hitting the over at a 72% rate. However, FanDuel lists the odds at -182 (instead of -165), which means the return of investment will be less than the initial 16%.
Mac Jones Over 4.5 Yards Rushing and Under 25.5 Completions
Jones had his first bad performance last week, as he only completed 58.8% of his 51 passes against New Orleans and was intercepted three times. He rushed for a career-high 28 yards against the Saints, however, and has completed 81 of 120 passes (67.5%) for 737 yards and two touchdowns.
Jones has an appealing matchup against a poor Buccaneers secondary that has allowed 104 completions on 144 pass attempts — second most in the NFL — for a 72.2% completion percentage. He is projected to attempt around 38 passes and finish the game with 22.5 completions. FanDuel lists the over/under 24.5 completions at +112 for the under, making this a very profitable bet since the under has an 81% chance of hitting.
Jones is also projected for 11.25 yards rushing. The over is expected to hit 68% of the time, with a return of investment being over 25%. FanDuel has the over/under at 5.5 yards and the under at -113, a 7-point drop from the opening line.
Leonard Fournette Over 3.5 Receptions
Fournette has steadily seen his involvement in the Buccaneers offense dissipate this season. He saw the field for just 26 snaps (36%) last week against the Rams, as the Buccaneers fell behind early. Still, Fournette managed seven touches, including three receptions for 26 yards. He is averaging 12 touches and four receptions this year.
Fournette should see a substantial amount of playing time tonight, with Giovanni Bernard (knee) being ruled out. While Tampa Bay is expected to run the ball more than usual, the Buccaneers are still slated to run just 34.6% of the time, which means there will be plenty of opportunities for Tom Brady to throw. The Buccaneers running backs account for 26.8% (26) of the team’s receptions and 24% of the targets. New England has given up 14 receptions and 119 yards, along with one touchdown to opposing running backs this year.
Fournette is projected to have 4.51 receptions tonight, with the over expected to hit 70% of the time. The investment return is listed at 19%, although FanDuel’s odds are slightly higher (-146).
Tom Brady Over 25.5 Completions.
Brady has attempted 50 passes in two of his three games and has completed an NFL-best 97 passes on 141 attempts (68.8%) for 1,087 yards, 10 touchdowns and two interceptions this year. He is projected to throw around 40 times tonight and finish with 27.26 completions. The over is given a 65% chance of hitting, with a return of investment at 21%.
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