This article will look at the Week 4 NFL best bets for the Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals Thursday Night Football game. Using the Awesemo NFL Betting Props Tool, bettors can utilize it to maximize their profits and see which bets have the highest expected return on investment for their NFL prop bets. Also, bettors can use OddsShopper to find which sportsbooks are offering the best prices for these prop bets. Here are the best bets for tonight’s Thursday Night Football game.
FanDuel Week 4 NFL Best Bets: Thursday Night Football
Trevor Lawrence Under 16.50 Yards Rushing
Lawrence has struggled throwing the ball, as he has completed just 54% of his passes and thrown seven interceptions in three games. He has run the ball decently well, accumulating 46 yards on nine attempts. However, Lawrence only had one carry last week for minus-2 yards. Lawrence is projected to have 6.37 yards rushing tonight, as the Bengals have done a decent job of containing quarterbacks in the pocket. Cincinnati’s defense, which has 10 sacks, has allowed 61 yards rushing to opposing quarterbacks, all coming in their Week 2 loss to Chicago. The under has an expected win rate of 89% and a return on investment of 69%.
James Robinson Over 51.50 Yards Rushing
Robinson is one of the Jaguars’ top playmakers and should see a lot of touches in this game. Robinson averages over 14 touches a game, including 10.3 rushes and 84 yards from scrimmage. Robinson is coming off a season-best 88 yards on 15 carries last week against Arizona. He averages 5.2 yards per attempt for the season. Robinson totaled 75 yards rushing on 17 carries a year ago against the Bengals and tonight is projected for 65.78 yards on the ground. While the Bengals run defense has been solid this year, Chicago’s David Montgomery had 61 yards on the ground in Week 2.
The over has an 85% chance of hitting and includes a 58% return on investment. FanDuel lists Robinson’s over/under at 53.5 yards, but with odds at -113 — which is 2 points lower than the opening line — the over is still a great bet.
Trevor Lawrence Under 254.50 Yards Passing
Lawrence has struggled with decision making. He was much more accurate against the Cardinals, as he completed 64.7% of his 34 pass attempts but for just 219 yards. He is averaging just 5.7 yards per attempt and 10.5 yards per completion, and tonight he has a tough matchup against a Bengals defense that can get after the quarterback. Cincinnati’s defense is giving up 5 net yards per attempt, which ranks fourth. Lawrence is projected to throw for 234.3 yards, with the under expected to hit 73% of the time. However, FanDuel lists the total at 250.5 with the odds at -113 instead of the opening of -115, which still makes the under a solid bet.
Joe Burrow Over 247.50 Yards Passing
Burrow has made strides this year, although he has been picked off four times already, which is just one fewer than last year. Burrow is completing over 70% of his passes this year, averaging 8.5 yards per attempt and 12.1 yards per completion, both of which are top 10 of the league. He has an extremely appealing matchup against a Jaguars defense that allowed Kyler Murray and Teddy Bridgewater to surpass the 300-yard mark in each of the last two weeks. The Jaguars are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete nearly 75% of their passes and over 302 yards per game.
Burrow is projected to have 273.31 yards passing, with the over given a 72% of hitting. While FanDuel lists his passing total prop at 253 with -113 odds, the over is the play.
Joe Mixon Over 16.5 Yards Receiving and Over 2.5 Receptions
Mixon has been a workhorse for the Bengals, although his touches have steadily decreased in each of the last two weeks. Still, he has 73 touches over the first three games, with 67 of those coming in the form of a carry. Mixon is an excellent receiver out of the backfield but has just six receptions for 29 yards this season. However, with the Bengals coming off a short week, expect them to throw the ball more often than they have in the first few weeks. The Jaguars defense has allowed opposing running back to average five receptions and more than 43 yards a game.
Mixon is projected to tally 25.11 yards receiving tonight, with a 67% chance of hitting and 28% return on investment. Mixon is also projected for 3.7 receptions. FanDuel has downgraded the odds from -139 to -156. However, with a 73% chance of the over hitting, it is a still a good bet.
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