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FINAL ROUND The Valspar Championship Expert Golf Betting Picks & PGA Odds

Jason Rouslin

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Welcome to the Awesemo Expert Golf Betting Picks for the final round of the 2022 Valspar Championship. A couple of long shots will tee it up in the last group in round 4, with Davis Riley(+200) leading Matthew NeSmith (+450) by two.

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The stars come next, as Justin Thomas (+220) and defending champion Sam Burns (+360) will play in the penultimate group tomorrow three back. They are the only ones within three, as Adam Hadwin (+2000) is five back as he looks to win his second Valspar.

Round 4 Golf Betting Picks Today | Valspar Championship

Bet: Tommy Fleetwood Top 5 (+700)

Trending throughout this Florida swing, Fleetwood has himself in a position for his best finish of the season. A late bogey cost him a spot in the top 10 going into the final round but sits just three shots out of the top 5. To close that gap and get paid 7/1 for him to do it sounds reasonable, as does the +130 for the top 10. Alex Noren has the same odds and sits at the same number; starting a Sunday card with each bet should provide a solid foundation.

Bet: Top Outright Candidate: Justin Thomas +220

Spending of trending, Thomas has been trending all season with elite ball-striking and a cold putter. But, since dropping the 60-foot eagle in round one, the putts just seem to be going in for him this week. He’s gained over three strokes in the first three rounds, a number that likely would have won him a few tournaments this year had he putted like this during them. He should be able to put instant pressure on Riley tomorrow, going out before him, and an eagle chance on the first hole.


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Bet: Deep Shot Outrights & Each Ways 

A seven-shot difference between Riley and the golfers in sixth place seems to be a little too far to overcome. But, Xander Schauffele sitting at 55/1 to win and +240 for a top 5 seem like the best candidate for a golfer that is seven or more back to catch the leaders. One other long-shot bet for the final round is Viktor Hovland 75/1 top 5 and +850 for a top 10 and +150 for a top 20.

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Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].

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