The 2021 NBA Draft is now just a day away, and it is time to get some of those NBA betting picks locked in ahead of time. After going over all of the betting odds, studying mock drafts and talking with fellow Awesemo NBA betting experts like Ben Rasa , I have come to the conclusion on some of my favorite picks for Thursday’s NBA Draft.
2021 NBA Draft Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions
Franz Wagner Selected in the Top 10 (-200)
This particular bet was included among NBA Draft bets on The Breakfast Menu. This bet at that time was at -170. The line has moved a day later, but there is still value in the number. Wagner profiles as a versatile defender with the ability to be an above-average catch-and-shoot guy. In terms of modern basketball, it seems like he is an excellent fit. Experts have Wagner going as early as seventh to the Warriors. The fit to the Magic at No. 8 is clear, although they may take someone with a bit of a higher ceiling. There is a rumor floating around the Kings have a “soft promise” to Wagner at No. 9. The Grizzlies have an obvious need on the wing, but they have also been linked to Josh Giddey after the Jonas Valanciunas trade. If Giddey happens to be gone already, Wagner works well. Either way, this still feels like a safe number.
Be sure to catch Loughy and Josh for tonight’s 2021 NBA Draft Live Watch Party at 7:45 p.m. ET on the AwesemoOdds YouTube Channel.
Scottie Barnes Selected Fourth (+220)
The other bet from the Breakfast Menu video has also moved in the right direction. It is a bit closer to neutral now, but there is still a bit of juice to be squeezed. The expectation is that Jalen Suggs will go fourth, likely to the Raptors as a Kyle Lowry replacement. There have been rumblings that the Raptors have an interest in Barnes, which makes a lot of sense. While Suggs is a good prospect, he does not have the ceiling one would want at No. 4. Barnes would create a lethal perimeter defensive combination with O.G. Anunoby. The big issue with Barnes is his lack of a shot. He was not much of a volume shooter in college, and it does not appear that he profiles to add that skillset.
However, the same thing could have been said about Anunoby when he left college. This past year Anunoby shot 40% from 3 on six attempts per game. The Raptors organization tend to get the most out of their prospects, and teams can never have too many wings. While Suggs will be great defensively, the Raptors will probably not want to go straight back to an undersized backcourt. The biggest concern with this bet is that the Raptors trade down and still take Barnes. Orlando has a staggering lack of guards, particularly with Markelle Fultz working his way back from injury. Would they be willing to part with an additional asset to move from No. 5 to No. 4 (or maybe from No. 8 to No. 4) to grab someone like Suggs? It would not be a surprise, and it would kill this bet. Either way, do not go any higher than +220 for Barnes at this spot.
Other Notes
The expected order of the top three picks is Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green and Evan Mobley. The line to bet on that exact order is somewhere around -330. There is a small bit of value on that bet by switching Green and Mobley. That swap gets the line up to +320. With the amount of talent in the first three picks, it would not be a surprise if there is a smokescreen from Houston or a trade, which could impact this order. There is not much gap between Green and Mobley in expected draft spot, so it is strange to see the odds have such a large swing between the two.
Davion Mitchell over 12.5 is -105, and that looks good. Unless the Warriors somehow snap him up at No. 7, there is not a great fit coming up in the next few picks. Jonathan Givony’s mock draft on ESPN has Mitchell going 13th to the Pacers.
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