Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free Expert Baseball Picks & Predictions 4/15

There are 15 games and 30 teams playing today, Friday, April 15. With a strange schedule to start the season, this is one of the more normal slates in the early part of the season, with two in the afternoon and then 13 in the evening. Each day this article will seek out the best expert MLB prop bets today based on the potentially most profitable according to xROI, and OddsShopper can help identify the best bets by making it easy to filter, sort and bet. If a pick below has changed, you can always find another great MLB bet by filtering and sorting to maximize chances at profit. Yesterday this article went 2-1 on the first three picks and 1-for-5 on home run picks.

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Nick Pivetta Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)

Nick Pivetta has a career strikeout rate of 25% and is facing the Minnesota Twins, who are striking out 28.8% of the time as a team (second most in MLB). In his first start of the season, Pivetta went 5.2 innings, allowed four earned runs and struck out four batters against the Yankees, who are No. 12 with a 24.2% strikeout rate on the season. Over the course of his career, Pivetta is striking out 1.08 batters per inning. To get to six strikeouts on average he would need to pitch 5.2 innings, which is the exact number of innings he pitched in his last outing. He could get there in even fewer than 5.2 innings, as the Twins are striking out at a higher rate than his career averages, boosting his numbers for today.

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Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Bases (-118)

Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees will be taking on Jordan Lyles and the Baltimore Orioles. Lyles is not a great starting pitcher. He has a career strikeout-walk rate of just 9.5%, a career xFIP of 4.48 and a career WHIP of 1.44. Judge, on the other hand, is off to a good start to the season — eight hits in seven games, including three doubles and one home run. In other words, he is averaging a little over one hit per game, and half of his hits are extra-base hits. Going against Lyles and the Baltimore bullpen, Judge has a great opportunity to either get one extra-base hit or get two hits in the game. This is one of the best prop bets of the day.

Dylan Cease Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-125)

Dylan Cease takes on the Tampa Bay Rays tonight. Tampa Bay strikes out 22% of the time, No. 20 in MLB. Cease on the other hand has a career strikeout percentage of 27.4% and averages 1.18 strikeouts per inning. Based on his career averages, he would have to pitch 6.2 innings to reach the eight strikeouts needed to go over. With it being early in the season, pitchers are not being pushed to pitch a lot of innings, and Tampa Bay has not shown to be the kind of team that will strike out at a higher-than-average rate. This is a better mid- to late-season bet than early-season bet; he has a better chance of staying under than going over at this point.

Salvador Perez Over 0.5 Home Runs (+300)

Salvador Perez and the Kansas City Royals will face Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers tonight. Perez has a .330 ISO against lefties in the last two seasons. Skubal, despite being a talented pitcher, allows 2.14 HR/9 for his career. In his last start, Skubal did not allow any home runs (he did allow several extra-base hits), but until he shows more long-term evidence of suppressing home runs, he is targetable for home run props. Perez, with his .330 ISO against lefties and coming off a season in which he tied for the MLB lead in home runs, has a great shot to go yard tonight.

More HR Prop Bets Today

Mike Trout Over 0.5 HR (+235)
Giancarlo Stanton Over 0.5 HR (+275)
Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 HR (+300)
Pete Alonso Over 0.5 HR (+350)
Sean Murphy Over 0.5 HR (+460)

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