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MLB Player Prop Bets & Predictions Today 4/29/22




It is Friday, April 29, and there is a 15-game MLB slate tonight. Yesterday was a bit of a tough one after winning 3.57 units on Wednesday this column’s picks provided a profit of just 0.1 units. Here are more of the best MLB prop bets today in hopes of bouncing back.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Each day this article will seek out the best expert MLB prop bets today based on the potentially most profitable according to xROI, and OddsShopper can help identify the best bets by making it easy to filter, sort, and bet. If a pick below has changed, you can always find another great MLB bet by filtering and sorting to maximize chances at profit.

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Lucas Giolito Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-142)

Lucas Giolito is 0-0 with a 1.13 ERA, 2.30 xFIP and a 44.1% strikeout rate in his two starts this year. Over the course of his career, his xFIP is 4.22 and his strikeout rate is 25.4%. He has been a different pitcher the last three seasons, and in those seasons he had strikeout rates of 32.3% (2019), 33.7% (2020), and 27.9% (2021). Even taking last year, which was the lowest of those three, he struck out 1.13 batters per inning.

The Los Angeles Angles are No. 14 in strikeout rate (23.5%), No. 1 in runs scored, No. 1 in ISO (.175), and No. 3 in on-base percentage (.333) this season. This is an offense that is playing well but still strikes out their fair share of times. Giolito is an elite pitcher, and he can get seven strikeouts if he can get through 5 2/3 innings.

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Javier Baez Over 1.5 Bases (+120)

Javier Baez is hitting .257 with a .229 ISO and .486 slugging this year, which are pretty close to his career averages of .264 with a .212 ISO and .477 slugging. Tonight he faces Tyler Anderson and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Anderson in his career has allowed 1.40 HR/9 and one hit per inning. Baez will be batting third most likely and has a career ISO of .243 against left-handed pitching, compared to .202 against right-handed pitching. The game forecast is 65 degrees at first pitch with the wind blowing out. This hitting environment will make Detroit – Los Angeles a good game to target with MLB prop bets today.

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Salvador Perez Over 0.5 Home Runs (+255)

Salvador Perez is batting .200 with a .257 on-base percentage and a 0.277 ISO this year. He has five home runs this year, and those account for 38% of his hits. The Royals are facing Nestor Cortes, who has allowed 1.87 HR/9 in his career but just 0.57 HR/9 this year. Cortes has a 1.15 ERA with a 1.42 xFIP this year. This could be a breakout, or he could eventually regress to his career xFIP of 4.45. With only 15 2/3 innings, the career averages should be weighted more. Perez has a .219 career ISO against left-handed pitchers, including an ISO of .337 against left-handed pitchers last year.

Ty France Over 1.5 Bases (+145)

Ty France is currently hitting .365 (career average of .288) with a .243 ISO (.165 career ISO). In 19 games he has 27 hits and 45 total bases. He is facing Elieser Hernandez and the Miami Marlins tonight. Hernandez has a career 4.91 xFIP, 2.06 HR/9 and a 34.5% hard hit rate allowed, whereas this season he has allowed 3.52 HR/9. This is a combination of a batter that is off to a great start to the season and a pitcher that gives up home runs and hits. Having +145 odds seems too high for this spot.

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