Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free Expert Baseball Picks & Predictions 5/6

It is Friday, May 6, and there is a 15-game MLB slate that includes one day game and 14 night games for MLB prop bets today. Each day this article will seek out the best expert MLB prop bets today based on the potentially most profitable according to xROI, and OddsShopper can help identify the best bets by making it easy to filter, sort and bet. If a pick below has changed, you can always find another great MLB bet by filtering and sorting to maximize chances at profit.

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Shane Bieber Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+106)

Shane Bieber faces the Toronto Blue Jays tonight. He has a 25.4% strikeout rate this season, averaging 0.99 strikeouts per inning. For his career, he has a strikeout rate of 30.6% and strikes out 1.24 batters per inning. Toronto has the 17th-highest strikeout rate at 22.6%, so it is a neutral matchup for a strikeout boost. If Bieber strikes out batters at his current rate, it would take him seven innings to hit the over. If he strikes out closer to his career averages, it would take him 5 2/3 innings to hit the over. Bieber is coming off of back-to-back 100-pitch outings. Two starts ago he went 6 1/3 innings and threw 100 pitches. In his last start, he went seven innings and threw 105 pitches. He has the stamina to get into the seventh inning if he is having a good game.

Luis Garcia Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-116)

Luis Garcia faces the Tigers today. In general the Tigers are a good team to target with strikeout props because they have the sixth-highest strikeout rate (24.9%). This season Garcia has a strikeout rate of 22.4% and is averaging 0.88 strikeouts per inning. In his career his strikeout rate is 25.4% and he averages 1.03 strikeouts per inning. Going against a team with a higher strikeout rate, it is reasonable to give Garcia a strikeout boost and project him to perform more in line with his career averages, which would be close to one strikeout per inning. Garcia has gone six innings in each of his last two starts, and three starts ago he pitched into the sixth inning and was taken out after 5 1/3 innings. If he can reach six innings, with his career numbers and who he is facing today, he has a great chance of going over.

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Salvador Perez Over 1.5 Bases (+105)

Salvador Perez is facing Jordan Lyles and the Baltimore Orioles in the first game of a series. Lyles has a 4.28 xFIP and just a 17.6% strikeout rate this season. He is allowing 1.38 HR/9 and a hard-hit rate of 38.8%. These are close to his career numbers of 4.47 xFIP, 17.4% strikeout rate, 1.35 HR/9 and 38.3% hard-hit rate, so he can have damage done to him because he gives up a significant amount of contact.

Perez is hitting just .167 with a .211 ISO. Nine of his 15 hits on the season are extra-base hits, with four doubles and five home runs. He is averaging 1.47 total bases per game, producing games with zero and then games where he goes well over his average. Lyles is a good pitcher to target here, and Perez’s home run prop at +340 can be sprinkled on as well.

Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 Home Runs (+240)

Yordan Alvarez faces Beau Brieske and the Detroit Tigers today. Brieske is a rookie, has started just two games and only has 10 major league innings. In that small sample size, his xFIP is 5.44 and he has allowed 2.70 HR/9. The Astros are a good team to target for prop bets tonight with Brieske on the mound.

Alvarez is hitting .268 with a .366 ISO. He has two doubles and eight home runs on the season, and those account for 10 of his 19 total hits. He is averaging 2.15 bases per game, and most of the balls he hits deep are going for home runs. Taking over 1.5 bases prop (-120) in the event that a near home run does hit the wall would be reasonable here too.

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