Major League Baseball just wrapped up its first weekend, and now we turn our attention to Monday, April 11, where there are 11 games on the schedule — five in the afternoon and six in the evening. Each day this article will seek out the best expert MLB prop bets today based on the potentially most profitable according to xROI%. OddsShopper can help identify the best bets by making it easy to filter, sort and bet. If a pick below has changed, you can always find another great MLB bet by filtering and sorting to maximize your chances at profit. (NOTE: MLB Player Props are coming soon to OddsShopper).
Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions
Dylan Bundy Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-145)
The Minnesota Twins wrap up their series against the Seattle Mariners today as they attempt to split the series at 2-2, while Seattle tries to win it 3-1. Last year Dylan Bundy had a season to forget. He had a 6.06 ERA in 90.2 innings pitched, with a lower xFIP of 4.66 (his highest since 2017). One thing that has been consistent for Bundy is he is capable of striking batters out. He has never had a season where he had a strikeout rate below 21%, including last year when he was at 21.2%. In the preseason various models projected his strikeout rate to be over 20%, so until he shows something different, that will be the baseline projection for him. If he is going to strike out one every five batters or so, he should hit the over on this bet if he can make it four or five innings. Although it is very early season, Seattle’s strikeout rate is 23.1%, which is right in line with Bundy’s 20-21% baseline. It’s worth taking a look at this one, as striking batters out is something Bundy has always been able to do in the past.
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Javier Baez Over 1.5 Bases (+120)
The Detroit Tigers are starting a new series against the Boston Red Sox, and the probable pitcher for Boston is journeyman Michael Wacha. Wacha had a 5.05 ERA and a 3.91 xFIP last season, but something that stands out is the hard contact he allowed last year. In 2020 his hard-hit percentage was 43.6%, up from 35.5% in 2019. It was easy to possibly chalk it up to a small sample size over a shortened season. The issue is that in 2021 his hard-hit percentage remained high at 42.7%. Additionally, his barrel rate was 10.5%, the highest of his career.
On the other side, Javier Baez is someone who hits the ball hard. Baez has had an ISO of .207 or higher in five of the last six seasons, including an ISO of .227 last year. He does strike out frequently; his strikeout rate was 33.6% last year and is already at 33% to start this year as well. The thing about this bet is Baez needs just one extra-base hit to win it. He could go 1-for-4 and striking out three times but have one double and win the bet. A walk does not count as a total base, and with Baez having a career walk rate of 4.8%, this is not likely to happen in the game.
Baez possesses power at the plate, while Wacha has been giving up hard hits at the highest rate of his career.
Taylor Hearn Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-130)
The Colorado Rockies travel to Texas to take on the Texas Rangers for the opener of a new series. Taylor Hearn is expected to get the nod for the Rangers and finds himself in a spot to have a nice game to start his 2022 season. Last year Hearn had a 4.66 ERA, an xFIP of 4.80 and a 20.9% strikeout rate. At first glance, those are not great numbers. However, the Rockies lineup does not pack a lot of punch and will provide Hearn with an opportunity to have a productive start.
The season is just five three games old, but the Rockies as a team are striking out 28% of the time, No. 5 in the MLB so far. It is a small sample size, but regardless, he can say the Rockies have struck out frequently this season. Generally, when a pitcher goes against a team with a higher-than-average strikeout rate, their strikeout probability goes up. Based on last year’s numbers, it would take Hearn about four innings on average to reach 4.1 innings pitched to hit the strikeout prop. Elevate Hearn’s strikeout rate to higher than the 20.9% he had last year due to the Rockies striking out more frequently, and he could get there in the third or fourth inning if he can limit the damage done to him.
Salvador Perez Over 0.5 Home Runs (+230)
What fun would an MLB props article be without a home run recommendation? Aaron Civale takes the mound for Cleveland to wrap up their series against Kansas City. Last year Civale’s hard-hit percentage was 39.3%, a career high. He allowed 1.66 HR/9 and had an 8.2% barrel rate (career high also). Salvador Perez tied Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for the most home runs in the MLB with 48. He posted a .246 ISO last year against right-handed pitching and a .244 ISO at home. Add in the fact that the game is forecasted to be 61 degrees by the first pitch, and there’s a good chance Perez will leave the yard.
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