It is Monday, April 25, and there is a seven-game MLB slate in which all of the games start at 6:10 p.m. ET or later. Last week’s article hit on several props and had a profitable week. We now return for more of the best MLB prop bets today in hopes of having another fantastic week to close out April.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions
Each day this article will seek out the best expert MLB prop bets today based on the potentially most profitable according to xROI, and OddsShopper can help identify the best bets by making it easy to filter, sort, and bet. If a pick below has changed, you can always find another great MLB bet by filtering and sorting to maximize chances at profit.
Kyle Freeland Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145)
Kyle Freeland is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA, 4.39 xFIP, 14.7% strikeout rate and a 46% hard-hit rate in his three starts this year. Over the course of his career, his xFIP is 4.51 and his strikeout rate is 18%. Based on his career strikeout rate, it would take him pitching 6.2 innings to reach five strikeouts.
Philadelphia is No. 17 in strikeout rate (23.1%) and No. 15 in runs scored this season. Philadelphia is No. 8 in ISO (.154) and No. 9 in on-base percentage (.320). Kyle Freeland is not good enough to last the 6.2 innings on average to reach five strikeouts. Even if Freeland has a decent start, there is a good chance he will pitch five or six innings and get three or four strikeouts. This bet has several pathways to win.
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Rhys Hoskins Over 1.5 Bases (+105)
Rhys Hoskins comes into this game batting .196 with a .349 on-base percentage, one home run and a .176 ISO. In other words, he is off to a slow start this year. What is encouraging is that in his career he has a .389 wOBA and .277 ISO against lefties, and in his last two seasons he has had a .310 ISO against lefties. Additionally, even though he only has 10 hits thus far, half of them are extra-base hits (four doubles, one home run). Kyle Freeland, the starter in the game, has a 4.74 xFIP in his career against right-handed batting along with a .178 ISO against. All told, it is surprising that this bet comes at plus odds. This is one of the best picks, and the Phillies are a good team to target with MLB prop bets today.
Matt Chapman Over 0.5 Bases (-135)
Matt Chapman is currently hitting .246 (career average is .243), and in 16 games he has 14 hits and 23 total bases. He is facing Nathan Eovaldi, and while Eovaldi is known for striking out batters, he does give up hits. In his career, Eovaldi has a .263 batting average against and allows 1.04 hits per inning on average. Taking matchups out of it, Chapman a hit every five at-bats. With him batting No. 6 in the order most likely, he may only get four plate appearances (walks do not count in this bet). He has a good chance to get a hit tonight, and the odds are not as juiced as several of the other Blue Jays here.
Nick Castellanos Over 0.5 Home Runs (+390)
Nick Castellanos has a career .236 ISO and .539 slugging against left-handed pitching. In 2021 Castellanos had a .285 ISO with a .590 slugging against left-handed pitching. Opposing pitcher Kyle Freeland has allowed 1.2 HR/9 over the course of his career, and a good hitter like Castellanos can take him deep. Castellanos’ odds to hit a home run are just as high as anyone’s on the slate, but there are many at lower odds in the upper +200s or lower +300s.
Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 Home Runs (+310)
Yordan Alvarez has three home runs in 10 games so far. He has a career .286 ISO, indicating he has a ton of power. Dane Dunning this year is allowing 1.42 HR/9 but is at 1.04 in his career. The Texas bullpen has already allowed 13 home runs on the season in 15 games. Alvarez has legit power, Dunning has not pitched well, the Texas bullpen has not pitched well, and Alvarez could leave the yard tonight against the Rangers.
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