Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free Expert Baseball Picks & Predictions 5/9

It is Monday, May 9, and there is an 11-game MLB slate that includes two day games and nine night games for MLB prop bets today. Each day this article will seek out the best expert MLB prop bets today based on the potentially most profitable according to xROI, and OddsShopper can help identify the best bets by making it easy to filter, sort and bet. If a pick below has changed, you can always find another great MLB bet by filtering and sorting to maximize chances at profit.

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Michael Kopech Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-126)

Michael Kopech is pitching against the Cleveland Guardians tonight. He has a 25.3% strikeout rate this season, averaging one strikeout per inning. For his career, he has a strikeout rate of 31.8% and strikes out 1.32 batters per inning. This is his first year as a starter, though, and it is possible that his strikeout rate will not hold over the course of long stretches. That said, he did have a game last year where he struck out 10 batters in five innings. Cleveland has the second-lowest strikeout rate in the big leagues at 19.7%, which will not provide a strikeout boost for Kopech.

Kopech is striking out a batter per inning on average and all of his starts have gone either four or five innings. He threw 83 pitches in four innings last start and 94 pitches in five innings the start previous to that. This is a pitch count and not an innings cap. He has only gone over this total once — against Minnesota, which has a higher strikeout rate at 23.5% on the season. Since he is unlikely to go six innings, the under is the best bet today.

Brandon Woodruff Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-108)

Brandon Woodruff faces the Reds today. The Reds are a good team to target with strikeout props because they have the second-highest strikeout rate (26.4%). This season, Woodruff has a strikeout rate of 29.8% and is averaging 1.27 strikeouts per inning. In his career, his strikeout rate is 28.3% and he averages 1.15 strikeouts per inning. Going against a team with a higher strikeout rate, it is reasonable to give Woodruff a boost even though he is performing within his career ranges this season. Based on his season average, it would take 5.2 innings to go over this total. His last start on May 2 was against these same Reds, and in that game he struck out 12 batters in 5.2 innings. The Reds are not a good team, and going back to the well here with Woodruff is a good idea.

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Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)

Ketel Marte is facing Elieser Hernandez and the Miami Marlins in the first game of a series. Hernandez has a 4.52 xFIP and just a 21.1% strikeout rate this season. He is allowing 2.59 HR/9 and a hard-hit rate of 31.6%. For his career, he has a 4.91 xFIP, 2.02 HR/9 and a 22.3% strikeout rate, making him a good pitcher to target against for some of the best MLB prop bets today. Marte is hitting just .206 with a .147 ISO. Twelve of his 21 hits on the season are extra-base hits, with 10 doubles, one triple and one home run. Marte is a career .284 hitter with a .168 career ISO, and this is a spot where he could easily get an extra-base hit or two hits against a weak starting pitcher.

Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 Home Runs (+315)

Kyle Schwarber faces Chris Flexen and the Seattle Mariners today. Flexen has an xFIP of 4.55 and a career xFIP of 5.08. He is striking out just 14.8% of batters, and his strikeout rate over his career has been 15.9%. This season Flexen has allowed a hard-hit rate of 44.9%, which is much higher than his career rate of 38%, and he has allowed 1.17 HR/9 over his career. However, in 2021 and 2022 his HR/9 has been 0.95 and 0.93, respectively.

Schwarber is a good candidate to hit a home run, as Flexen is a pitcher who allows a lot of contact. One thing that Schwarber does — when he makes contact — is crush the ball. Schwarber might be batting just .211 on the season, but 11 of his 20 hits are extra-base hits, including seven home runs. He is averaging 1.73 bases per game despite the low batting average. He has as good of a chance as anyone on this slate to hit a home run. Placing a small bet on that and also placing a larger bet on over 1.5 bases (+115) is a good way to go in the event he hits a double instead of a home run.

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