Thursday, April 14, has 11 games — two in the afternoon and then nine in the evening. Each day this article will seek out the best expert MLB prop bets today based on the potentially most profitable according to xROI, and OddsShopper can help identify the best bets by making it easy to filter, sort and bet. If a pick below has changed, you can always find another great MLB bet by filtering and sorting to maximize chances at profit. Yesterday this article went 3-0 in the first three picks and 1-for-4 on home run picks.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions
Walker Buehler Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Walker Buehler has a career strikeout rate of 27.6%. In his first start of the season he allowed two runs over five innings for a 3.60 ERA and 3.66 xFIP. He will now make his second start of the season against the Cincinnati Reds. In the early part of the season, the Reds are No. 4 in the MLB in strikeout rate at 26.3%. If these numbers hold, and if Buehler regresses closer to his career strikeout rate, he would have to go six innings to hit the over, and doing it in five innings is within his range of outcomes given Cincinnati’s propensity to strikeout.
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Chris Taylor Over 0.5 Bases (-140)
Chris Taylor and the Los Angeles Dodgers are going to take on the Cincinnati Reds. Luis Cessa is going to be the opener and then will be followed by Reiver Sanmartin. If Taylor bats seventh in the order as projected, he is more likely to face Sanmartin than he is Cessa in his first at-bat. Taylor has a career batting average of .262, so if he gets four at-bats, he is likely to get a hit, which wins the bet. Taylor has a career average of .263 against lefties and .261 against righties, so he is equally likely to get a hit once every four at-bats regardless of what type of pitcher he is facing. Sanmartin has only pitched 14 innings at the major league level and has allowed 16 hits. In Triple-A last year he allowed 80 hits in 82 1/3 innings. This one seems like one of the best MLB prop bets today on the entire board considering most of the players at the top of the order have odds that are pretty juiced, and Taylor is still a pretty solid hitter going against a shaky enough of a team to get a hit.
Casey Mize Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Casey Mize takes on the Kansas City Royals today. The Royals are tied with the Chicago White Sox for the lowest strikeout rate in the MLB at 15.6%. It is early in the season and a small sample size of just five games, but this is not a team that is striking out right now. In his first start, Mize struck out two batters in five innings. He pitched against those White Sox that also have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball. In both 2020 and 2021, Mize has a strikeout rate of 19% on average and has a 19% strikeout rate at the major league level in his career. It would take him pitching between 4 2/3 and 5 1/3 innings to reach four strikeouts in a game if he were to strike batters out at his career average. Going against a team striking out just 15.6% of the time, he is unlikely to be able to strike out the Royals at his career average or go five innings with at least four strikeouts.
Mike Zunino Over 0.5 Home Runs (+260)
Mike Zunino and the Tampa Bay Rays will face Cole Irvin and the Oakland Athletics tonight. Zunino has a .500 ISO against lefties in the last two seasons. Irvin allows 1.34 HR/9 for his career, and in his last start he allowed three home runs in just 5 1/3 innings. Zunino has a strong chance at a home run compared to what the odds are tonight.
More HR Prop Bets Today
- Salvador Perez Over 0.5 HR (+240)
- Joey Gallo Over 0.5 HR (+350)
- Frank Schwindel Over 0.5 HR (+350)
- Juan Soto Over 0.5 HR (+385)
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