It is Thursday, April 28, and there is a 13-game MLB slate today. There are only two games being played tonight, and the rest are during the day. These picks will focus on the mid-afternoon and evening games. This column hit on four out of five picks yesterday, which would have earned 3.57 units if betting an equal amount on each. Here are more of the best MLB prop bets today to keep the profit streak alive.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions
Each day this article will seek out the best expert MLB prop bets today based on the potentially most profitable according to xROI, and OddsShopper can help identify the best bets by making it easy to filter, sort, and bet. If a pick below has changed, you can always find another great MLB bet by filtering and sorting to maximize chances at profit.
Alek Manoah Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-108)
Alek Manoah is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA, 3.69 xFIP and a 25% strikeout rate in his three starts this year. Over the course of his career (23 starts), his xFIP is 4.10 and his strikeout rate is 27.3%. Based on his career strikeout rate, it would take him 6 1/3 innings to reach seven. He has gone six innings in each of his three starts this year and struck out seven, six and five batters in those starts.
Boston is No. 18 in strikeout rate (23.3%), No. 18 in runs scored, No. 23 in ISO (.119) and No. 25 in on-base percentage (.285) this season. This is an offense that is not playing particularly well, and Manoah should be able to last five or six innings. However, he may not be able to elevate Boston’s strikeout rate for this game or stick around long enough to get to seven strikeouts.
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Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Bases (+115)
Jose Ramirez is hitting .353 with a .382 ISO and .735 slugging this year. With career averages of .280 batting, .226 ISO and .506 slugging, he should eventually regress to his career averages. Tonight he faces Reid Detmers and the Los Angeles Angels. Detmers in his career has allowed 1.91 HR/9 and 37.1% hard hits. Jose Ramirez should be hitting third and has a good chance at a couple bases, as he has a .210 ISO against left-handed pitchers in his career. Ramirez has started off hot, and Cleveland in general is a good team to target with MLB prop bets today.
Adam Duvall Over 0.5 Home Runs (+310)
Adam Duvall is off to a slow start. He is batting .197 with a .250 on base percentage and a 0.061 ISO in 67 plate appearances this year. He has zero home runs this year after hitting 38 home runs last season. Sometimes batters need to face the right pitcher to get on track. The Braves are facing Drew Smyly, who has allowed 1.48 HR/9 in his career. Smyly has a 2.45 ERA, but his underlying metrics tell a different story, as he has a 4.03 xFIP this year (4.10 xFIP is his career number). Duvall has a .224 career ISO against left-handed pitchers, and Smyly is a lefty that gives up home runs. The Braves are also a good team to target with MLB prop bets today.
Yuli Gurriel Over 1.5 Bases (+100)
Yuli Gurriel is currently hitting .218 (career average of .292) with a .127 ISO (.173 career ISO). In 15 games he has 12 hits and 19 total bases. Seven of his 12 hits are doubles. He is facing Martin Perez and the Texas Rangers tonight. Perez has a career 4.56 xFIP, 1.06 HR/9 and 34.7% hard hit rate allowed. This season Perez has not allowed a home run and his hard-hit rate is just 22%. For the sample of this season, Gurriel does not look like a great play. But considering Perez’s career numbers, Gurriel looks like a much better play and has a great chance to get a couple of hits or get an extra-base hit.
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