Best MLB Prop Bets Today: BIG $$$ Home Run Picks & Predictions 5/12

It is Thursday, May 12, and this article will focus on the four-game MLB night slate for MLB prop bets today. Just because there are only four games doesn’t mean we can’t find some profitable picks tonight. Below are the picks for some of the best MLB prop bets today.

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Zack Wheeler O/U 5.5 Strikeouts

Zack Wheeler is pitching against the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight. On the season, he has a 22.5% strikeout rate and is averaging 0.95 strikeouts per inning. Over his career, he has struck out 0.99 batters per inning, so he is pitching close to his career totals. The Dodgers, on the other hand, have the sixth-lowest strikeout rate in all of baseball (21.3%). This is simply not a team that one typically wants to target with strikeout props. On average, Wheeler would have to pitch 6.1 innings to hit the over. Awesemo’s MLB model projects Wheeler for five strikeouts and a 68% chance of him staying under the total.

Best MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Zack Wheeler UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-130)

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Jon Heasley O/U 3.5 Strikeouts

Jon Heasley faces the Kansas City Royals in his first major league start of the season. In three starts last year, Heasley struck out 10.2% of batters and averaged 0.41 strikeouts per inning. He also had a 5.66 xFIP in those three starts. Texas has the 17th-highest strikeout rate in baseball (22.1%), so they are not necessarily a team at the moment to target with strikeout props either. Heasley has not proven he can strike out batters at the major league level in his limited sample. He is facing a Texas offense that strikes out an average number of times, and Awesemo’s MLB projections model projects three strikeouts for Heasley and a 68% chance of staying under the total.

Best MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Jon Heasley UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (-130)

Nick Castellanos O/U 1.5 Total Bases

Nick Castellanos and the Phillies will face Tyler Anderson and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Castellanos is batting .300 with a .209 ISO and averaging 1.87 bases per game. Anderson has been pitching well and this could very well be a low-scoring game, but that does not mean Castellanos will not get his hits. He has a .260 ISO against left-handed pitchers this season and a .300 ISO against left-handed pitchers the last two seasons. He has a great chance to hit an extra-base hit, and his .300 batting average gives him a chance at multiple base hits.

Best MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Nick Castellanos OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+115)

Daniel Vogelbach O/U 0.5 Home Runs

Daniel Vogelbach is facing Connor Overton tonight. Vogelbach is batting .253 (career high) with a .213 ISO and five home runs in 25 games this season. This is a pick based entirely on Awesemo’s MLB projections model and the price that sportsbooks are offering at the moment. According to the model, Vogelbach has a 16% chance of hitting a home run tonight. The +550 odds are the books implying there is a 15.38% chance of Vogelbach going yard. This means that there is a small edge in betting Vogelbach to hit a home run. Many of the home run props posted out there give an implied 20% to 25% chance of hitting a home run, while the actual probability of hitting a home run is lower.

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Best MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Daniel Vogelbach OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550)

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