It is Tuesday, April 26, and there is a 15-game MLB slate in which all of the games start at 6:35 p.m. ET or later. This column hit several props in yesterday’s article, which would have earned 2.89 units if betting an equal amount on each. Here are more of the best MLB prop bets today to keep the profit streak alive.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions
Each day this article will seek out the best expert MLB prop bets today based on the potentially most profitable according to xROI, and OddsShopper can help identify the best bets by making it easy to filter, sort, and bet. If a pick below has changed, you can always find another great MLB bet by filtering and sorting to maximize chances at profit.
German Marquez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
German Marquez is 0-0 with a 4.67 ERA, 3.28 xFIP, 17.3% strikeout rate and a 45.8% hard-hit rate in his three starts this year. Over the course of his career, his xFIP is 3.61 and his strikeout rate is 23.6%. Based on his career strikeout rate, it would take him pitching six innings to reach six strikeouts.
Philadelphia is No. 16 in strikeout rate (23%), No. 11 in runs, No. 7 in ISO (.154) and No. 9 in on-base percentage (.319) this season. If Marquez averages about one strikeout per inning and the Phillies strike out about once per inning, Marquez could go six innings and get six strikeouts in this matchup, as the Phillies are a bit inconsistent offensively to start the year.
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Luis Robert Over 1.5 Bases (+100)
Luis Robert is off to a slow start, batting .205 with a .222 on-base percentage, two home runs, and a .182 ISO. What is encouraging is that in his career he has a .435 wOBA and .314 ISO against lefties. Additionally, even though he only has nine hits thus far, four of them are extra-base hits (two doubles, two home runs). Daniel Lynch, the starter in the game for Kansas City, has a 5.14 xFIP in his career. All told, it is surprising that this bet comes at plus odds. This is one of the best picks, and the White Sox are a good team to target with MLB prop bets today.
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Bases (+105)
Aaron Judge is currently hitting .263 (career average is .276), and in 16 games he has 15 hits and 29 total bases. He is facing Jordan Lyles and the Baltimore Orioles today. Even though Lyles has a 3.52 ERA, his xFIP is 4.08 and his career xFIP is 4.47. In his career Lyles has allowed a 38.3% hard-hit rate, including a 37.5% rate this season. Taking matchups out of it, Judge is averaging 1.81 bases per game. This should be a good matchup for Judge, who will likely be batting second and could get five plate appearances in this game.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs (+340)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has five home runs, a .279 ISO thus far and a .623 slugging in 17 games this year. The Blue Jays are facing Nick Pivetta, who has allowed 3.09 HR/9 in a small sample size this year, but for his career he has allowed 1.59 HR/9. He has as good of a chance as anyone on the slate to hit a home run and comes at +340 odds instead of in the +200 range.
Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Bases (+135)
Byron Buxton is hitting .351 with a .595 ISO and .946 slugging this year. It’s fair to say that he is red hot right now. Tonight he faces Eduardo Rodriguez and the Detroit Tigers. While Rodriguez is known to strike batters out (career 24.4% strikeout rate), he allows 1.13 HR/9 and nearly one hit per inning over the course of his career (it was 1.09 per inning in 2021). In 10 games, Buxton has six home runs and four doubles. He has 10 extra-base hits out of the 13 total hits he has this season. Of course, these rates are not sustainable over the course of an entire season, but he did have a .300 ISO against lefties in 2021 and is seeing the ball well now.
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