Best MLB Prop Bets Today: BIG $$$ Home Run Picks & Predictions 5/17

It’s an insanely large 18-game MLB slate for MLB prop bets today that includes three doubleheaders. Today features appearances by some pitchers that have pitched well as expected — Dylan Cease, Logan Gilbert, Nathan Eovaldi, Shane McClanahan — along with some surprises — Merrill Kelly, Chad Kuhl, Alex Cobb — and a couple of early disappointments — Jose Berrios, Jose Urquidy, Brady Singer, Mike Clevinger. This creates an interesting slate where one can go in many different directions. Below there are two strikeout props, two total base props and one home run prop below, and OddsShopper can help find all of the best MLB betting picks and get helpful tips when it comes to making MLB predictions for today, Tuesday, May 17.

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Shane McClanahan O/U 7.5 K’s (Claim FREE $200 on BetMGM)

Shane McClanahan has a strikeout percentage of 38.2% and averages 1.47 strikeouts per inning. McClanahan’s career average of strikeouts per inning is 1.22. He is facing the Detroit Tigers, a team that has the 13th-highest strikeout rate this season (23.3%). The game is being played at Tropicana Field, which had the second-most strikeouts from 2019 to 2021, according to Statcast. If McClanahan continues to strike out batters at his current rate, he will need to pitch 5.1 innings to go over 7.5 strikeouts, and if he’s at his career average, he’ll need to last 6.2 innings to go over the total. McClanahan has gone seven innings twice out of seven starts this season. He is coming off of a 100-pitch, seven-inning, 11-strikeout performance in his last start. He has gone over this strikeout total in four out of his seven starts, including striking out 11 batters against Minnesota at home. Minnesota has a very similar strikeout rate as Detroit: 23.2%. Given he is pitching at home, McClanahan has a solid chance to go over the total.

Best MLB Prop Bet: Shane McClanahan OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (-111)

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Jameson Taillon O/U 4.5 K’s (Claim FREE $200 on BetMGM)

Jameson Taillon is pitching against Baltimore for a third time this season already. Baltimore is a good team to target with strikeout props, as it has the fourth-highest strikeout rate in baseball (24.7%). Taillon has not been striking out batters like he has in the past. This season, his strikeout rate is 19.4% and he is averaging 0.82 strikeouts per inning. These are his lowest marks since his 37 innings in the 2019 season. Taillon pitched 4.2 innings in each of his first two starts against Baltimore and struck out two and four batters. Those are low totals for a team that strikes out as often as Baltimore. This season, the Yankees have kept Taillon’s pitch count at or under 85. It is unclear if this is an official limit they are instituting at this point. At his current strikeout rates, he would have to pitch 6.1 innings on average to go over the total, and he has only made it to six innings once in 2022. There are scenarios where he gets five or more strikeouts today, but the number of scenarios in which he gets fewer than five strikeouts is probably higher given the observed pitch counts this season.

Best MLB Prop Bet: Jameson Taillon UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-128)

Aaron Judge O/U 0.5 Home Runs (Claim FREE $200 on BetMGM)
Aaron Judge O/U 1.5 Total Bases

Aaron Judge was not in the lineup last night, but he will hopefully be in the lineup tonight to face Spenser Watkins. On the season, Judge is hitting .296 with a .336 ISO and 12 home runs in 33 games. Watkins has allowed 1.38 HR/9 this year and is someone to target with home run props, especially when facing a potent lineup such as the Yankees. Because Judge is also averaging 2.39 total bases per game, it would make sense to look at his total base prop as well. One could create a ladder by betting the total base prop and then taking half or a quarter of that to bet his home run prop. Just hitting the total base prop makes a profit, and if he hits a home run, then both bets cash.

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Best MLB Prop Bet: Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+330), OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-125)

Yordan Alvarez O/U 1.5 Total Bases (Claim FREE $200 on BetMGM)

Yordan Alvarez and the Houston Astros are at Fenway Park to face Nathan Eovaldi and the Boston Red Sox. Eovaldi is having a nice season, with a 3.15 ERA and 3.03 xFIP. Typically, those are not numbers to target for prop betting. What stands out is, despite those good stats, he is allowing 2.03 HR/9 and a 43.4% hard-hit rate this season. Given that Eovaldi’s career HR/9 is 0.97 and his career hard-hit allowed rate is 37.3%, it is likely that over time his season totals will come down closer to his career numbers. Alvarez is hitting the ball hard, as evidenced by his .321 ISO, and he is averaging 2.06 total bases per game. This isn’t a game to target as a whole; this is a situation where one pitcher is giving up some hard contact and a hitter has been crushing the ball.

Best MLB Prop Bet: Yordan Alvarez OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+105)

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