Wednesday, April 13, has a split slate with nine games in the afternoon and four games in the evening and plenty of opportunities to find some bets. Each day this article will seek out the best expert MLB prop bets today based on the potentially most profitable according to xROI, and OddsShopper can help identify the best bets by making it easy to filter, sort and bet. If a pick below has changed, you can always find another great MLB bet by filtering and sorting to maximize chances at profit.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions
Aaron Nola Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies continue their series against the New York Mets after the Phillies evened up the series by winning 2-0 yesterday. Nola is making his second start of the season, and he posted a 6.00 ERA and a 2.21 xFIP across six innings. Nola also had a 30.4% strikeout rate in that start against Oakland.
The Mets are more of a threat than the Athletics, however. In this very early season, Oakland has posted a 26% strikeout rate (No. 6), while the Mets have a 20.8% strikeout rate (No. 24). Something that should be noted is that Nola threw just 73 pitches in his first start and it is hard to envision him getting more than 80 pitches of work today.
In normal circumstances, Nola is a safe bet for six or seven innings, and if he pitches six or seven innings at his career strikeout rate, he strikes out closer to seven batters than six batters most of the time. These are not normal circumstances, though. It’s the early season, the league is limiting pitchers across the board, and pitchers were not fully stretched out in the shortened spring training.
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Austin Riley Over 1.5 Bases (+105)
Austin Riley and the Atlanta Braves are facing touted youngster Josiah Gray. In his first start, Gray had a 9.00 ERA, a 3.16 xFIP and a 25% strikeout rate against the New York Mets. Last year Gray had a 5.48 ERA and 5.05 xFIP, so he has struggled a bit coming up to the majors. Now he has to face a potent offense, including Austin Riley.
Riley is a career .272 hitter with a .495 slugging percentage and .223 ISO. The best way to translate ISO in laymen’s terms is a .200 ISO would be averaging one extra base for every five at-bats (going 1-for-5 with a double, for example). With a .223 ISO, if Riley were to have five at-bats in a game, he would have 1.11 extra bases. If he can get a fifth at-bat, he has a good shot at one extra base. He could win this bet by hitting two singles, getting an extra-base hit or hitting a home run. This one seems like one of the best MLB prop bets today on the entire board.
Max Fried Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145)
Max Fried has a 7.94 ERA, 3.63 xFIP and a 19.2% strikeout rate after just his first start of the season. Career-wise, he has a 3.40 ERA, 3.51 xFIP and 24% strikeout rate, averaging about one strikeout per inning. In the early part of the season, the Nationals have a strikeout rate of 25% (tied for No. 8). This is really a bet about whether one thinks Fried can go more than five innings. On average it would take Fried six innings to hit the over. With Fried coming off a loss in his last start, and Atlanta having a blowout win the night before, Atlanta may pull him out after five innings if he has a lead. There are simply more scenarios in which Fried goes under than over.
Matt Olson Over 0.5 Home Runs (+275)
While Gray is a talented pitcher with a lot of promise, he is averaging 2.41 HR/9 since 2021, which is an average of nearly one home run every 3.2 innings pitched. This game will be 74 degrees around the first pitch and the wind will be blowing in a little bit. Because of that, Matt Olson is the play to hit a home run in this game if Gray allows one because it will take some legit power to get it out of the park. Olson has a .230 ISO and .510 slugging against right-handed pitching the last two seasons and a .268 ISO against right-handed pitching over the course of his career.
More HR Prop Bets Today
- Joey Votto Over 0.5 HR (+255)
- Luis Robert Over 0.5 HR (+270)
- Hunter Renfroe Over 0.5 HR (+390)
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