It is Wednesday, April 20. and there is a 16-game MLB slate that includes one doubleheader. There looks to be some weather in Detroit, Chicago and Oakland, which could impact those games. Fortunately, with wagering on MLB prop bets today, if there is a game postponed, the bet gets canceled and your money is refunded.
Each day this article will seek out the best expert MLB prop bets today based on the potentially most profitable according to xROI, and OddsShopper can help identify the best bets by making it easy to filter, sort, and bet. If a pick below has changed, you can always find another great MLB bet by filtering and sorting to maximize chances at profit.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions
Luis Severino Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-135)
Tonight, Luis Severino takes the mound as the New York Yankees take on the Detroit Tigers. Severino is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA, 2.78 xFIP, and a 31.4% strikeout rate. Over the course of his career, Severino has a 3.29 xFIP and 27.2% strikeout rate. The Detroit Tigers are coming into the game with a 25.62% strikeout rate as a team (No. 6). As a team, the Tigers also have a .106 ISO (No. 28), a .294 on-base percentage (No. 22), and have scored 30 runs total (No. 27).
Based on his career averages, Severino strikes out 1.12 batters per inning. To reach six strikeouts, it would take between 5 1/3 and 5 2/3 innings pitched. Given that in his last start, he threw 83 pitches, he should have the stamina to go six innings if he is doing well. This is an offense that is unlikely to get you knocked out of the game early and, well, he got knocked out of the game early. Severino, though, has been pitching much better than Cole this season and should strike out more than 5.5 batters tonight.
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Bases (+125)
Aaron Judge and the Yankees take on Eduardo Rodriguez and the Detroit Tigers. Judge is coming into the game batting .250 with a .400 slugging and .150 ISO. Over his career, he has a .276 batting average with a .551 slugging and .276 ISO. Judge hits lefties well. In his last two seasons, he has a .420 wOBA and .310 ISO against left-handed pitching. Even with the struggles, four of his 10 hits this year have been extra-base hits.
Rodriguez is coming into the game with a 5.87 ERA and 5.48 xFIP, allowing 1.17 HR/9 and a 53.8% hard-hit rate. This is a good spot for Judge to get back on track if the weather holds up.
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MacKenzie Gore Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-155)
Tonight MacKenzie Gore and the San Diego Padres are facing the Cincinnati Reds. Gore is coming into the game with a 3.38 ERA, 4.32 xFIP, and a 15% strikeout percentage. In his one start this year (no decision), he went 5 1/3 innings and threw 73 pitches before getting taken out of the game.
Cincinnati has one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball at 27.6% (No. 3). It is No. 26 in walk percentage (7.4%), No. 30 in on-base percentage (.250) and its .108 ISO is No. 27 in the league. Cincinnati is as good of a team as any to target with MLB prop bets today.
Prior to the season starting, most projection systems projected Gore to have a strikeout rate of about 20%. In Triple-A last year, it was 18.8%, but in lower levels of the minors, he struck out batters in the upper-20% to mid-30% range depending on the level. Projecting Gore at a 20% strikeout rate, which is what he was being projected at, facing a team that strikes out 27.6% of the time would provide a boost and his projected strikeout rate would fall somewhere between 20% and the 27.2%.
Even at 20%, that is an average of about 0.89 strikeouts per innings. To reach five strikeouts, Gore would have to pitch 5 2/3 innings pitched. Making it that far is in his range of outcomes, given he went 5 1/3 innings last start in 73 pitches. If his strikeout rate is elevated today, closer to 27.2%, then he could reach the five strikeouts between 4 1/3 and 4 2/3 innings pitched.
Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 Home Runs (+480)
Daulton Varsho and the Arizona Diamondbacks face the Washington Nationals tonight. On the mound for Washington is Erick Fedde, who has a 1.51 HR/9 in the last two seasons. The weather in Washington should be good for hitting. It will be 57 degrees at first pitch and the wind will be blowing out to center field. Varsho is projected to lead off and he has a .200 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons.
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