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MLB Player Prop Bets & Predictions Today 4/27/22




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It is Wednesday, April 27, and there is a 15-game MLB slate today. Three games will take place during the day, while the other 12 will be played tonight. This column hit a couple of props yesterday, which would have earned 0.4 units if betting an equal amount on each. Here are more of the best MLB prop bets today to keep the profit streak alive.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Each day this article will seek out the best expert MLB prop bets today based on the potentially most profitable according to xROI, and OddsShopper can help identify the best bets by making it easy to filter, sort, and bet. If a pick below has changed, you can always find another great MLB bet by filtering and sorting to maximize chances at profit.

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Glenn Otto Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)

Glenn Otto is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA, 2.72 xFIP and a 27.8% strikeout rate in his one start this year. Over the course of his career (seven starts), his xFIP is 3.36 and his strikeout rate is 25.6%. Throughout his minor league career, he was a high-strikeout pitcher as well. Based on his career strikeout rate, it would take him pitching 4 2/3 innings to reach five strikeouts. In his one start this season, he pitched five innings and struck out five batters

Houston is No. 20 in strikeout rate (21.9%), No. 24 in runs scored, No. 10 in ISO (.149) and No. 23 in on-base percentage (.285) this season. This is an offense that is off to a slow start, and Otto should be able to stick around in the game and last five or six innings, which should get him over 4.5 strikeouts.

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Tim Anderson Over 1.5 Bases (+110)

Tim Anderson is batting .288 with a .302 on-base percentage, two home runs and a .192 ISO. Anderson has 15 hits in 13 games, and six of them are extra-base hits. In other words, he has 25 total bases in 13 games, averaging nearly two bases per game. The White Sox are facing Zack Greinke and the Royals, Greinke through three starts has a strikeout rate of 3.2% — two strikeouts in 16 innings. He is giving up a lot of contact, including a hard-hit rate of 47.2% this year. Although Greinke has a 2.25 ERA, his xFIP is 4.96 and his strikeout-walk ratio is -1.6%. While the White Sox did put up a disappointing effort against the Royals last night, Greinke’s metrics make the White Sox a good team to target with MLB prop bets today.

Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Bases (+125)

Rafael Devers is currently hitting .270, and in 18 games he has 20 hits and 34 total bases. He is facing Ross Stripling and the Toronto Blue Jays tonight. Stripling has a career 3.84 xFIP and in his career allows 1.4 HR/9 and a 34.8% hard hit rate. This season Stripling has not allowed a home run and his hard-hit rate is just 21.2%. This does not look like a great matchup for Devers, but given Stripling’s career numbers it should be a pretty good matchup, and Devers has a .330 ISO the last two seasons against right-handed pitching.

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Manny Machado Over 0.5 Home Runs (+315)

Manny Machado has three home runs, a .212 ISO and a .561 slugging percentage in 18 games this year. The Padres are facing Vladimir Gutierrez, who has allowed 1.49 HR/9 in his career. Gutierrez has a 6.59 xFIP this year (5.26 xFIP is his career number). Cincinnati’s bullpen has also allowed seven home runs this season, which is tied for the ninth most. The Padres are also a good team to target with MLB prop bets today.

Jazz Chisholm Over 1.5 Bases (+145)

Jazz Chisholm is hitting .286 with a .388 ISO and .673 slugging this year, and tonight he faces Erick Fedde and the Washington Nationals. Fedde in his career has allowed 1.56 HR/9 and 40.6% hard hits. Chisholm should be leading off and has a good chance at a couple bases. Chisholm has 14 hits in 14 games, along with 33 extra bases (five singles, three doubles, two triples, four home runs). He is a good bet to stay hot against a bad starting pitcher and a bad bullpen that is No. 21 in bullpen ERA this season.

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