Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free Expert Baseball Picks & Predictions 5/4

It is Wednesday, May 4, and there is a 17-game MLB slate today that includes two doubleheaders for MLB prop bets today. This article will be focused on the 15 other games on the slate outside of the doubleheaders. Yesterday the picks in this article resulted in a profit two or 2.5 units, depending on how one chose to bet the Byron Buxton total bases prop relative to the home run prop.

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Each day this article will seek out the best expert MLB prop bets today based on the potentially most profitable according to xROI, and OddsShopper can help identify the best bets by making it easy to filter, sort and bet. If a pick below has changed, you can always find another great MLB bet by filtering and sorting to maximize chances at profit.

Dylan Bundy Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-140)

Dylan Bundy faces the Baltimore Orioles today. Bundy has a 22.6% strikeout rate this season, averaging 0.89 strikeouts per inning. The Orioles are a good team to target with strikeout props, as they are No. 3 in strikeout rate (25.5%). This should provide a boost to Bundy’s strikeout chances. Bundy has gone over 3.5 strikeouts in three of his four starts (including three in a row). He would have to pitch at least 4 2/3 innings on average to hit the over based on his strikeout rate. He has gone five or more innings in each of his starts this season, and he is one of the safer bets on strikeout props today.

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Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Bases (+135)

The plan is still to continue playing Judge total base wagers until either he cools off or the odds drop below plus money.

The Yankees are facing Yusei Kikuchi and the Toronto Blue Jays. Kikuchi has a 5.29 xFIP and is allowing 1.84 HR/9 and a hard-hit rate of 47.8% this season too. In short, he has not been very good for the Blue Jays so far. His strikeout percentage is just 18.1%, which is only a little higher than his 16.1% strikeout rate in his first season in 2019.

Judge is batting .303 with a .371 ISO this season, and 15 of his 27 hits have been extra-base hits. He is averaging 2.6 bases per game in the early part of the season. Eventually his numbers will come down to reality, but it is tough to get away from Judge in this matchup given how well he has been hitting. It could also be worth placing one-quarter of the amount bet on Judge’s total bases on his home run prop, which is at +370, as hitting just one of these bets would still be a profit. The Yankees are a good team to target with MLB props today.

Nelson Cruz Over 0.5 Home Runs (+340)

Nelson Cruz is not off to a good start this year. He is batting .143 and has a 0.066 ISO, so age has maybe caught up with Cruz. At the same time, he is facing Austin Gomber tonight in Coors Field. Gomber has a career 4.30 xFIP and allowed 1.56 HR/9 in his first 100-inning season. In his career, Cruz has a .260 ISO against left-handed pitching. The Rockies also have the worst bullpen ERA in baseball (4.85). This should be a spot where Cruz can get back on track if he is going to get on track this season — facing a hittable lefty in the best hitting environment in baseball. Temper the bet size here because Cruz has been in bad form, but it is difficult to predict when someone will get back on track.

This Coors Field matchup is another good game to target with MLB props. A lot of the early ones posted are juiced, but many of the books have not been posted yet. Check for updates throughout the day. This matchup is Patrick Corbin versus Gomber with a posted game total of 10.5 runs.

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