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FINAL ROUND Arnold Palmer Invitational Expert Golf Betting Picks & PGA Odds

Jason Rouslin

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Welcome to the Awesemo Expert Golf Betting Picks for the final round of the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational. As Round 3 progressed, and Viktor Hovland (+330) held a four-shot lead at one point and looked unflappable, it quickly changed after a rocket on the 11th hole. Hovland stood in the middle of the fairway 150 yards out and snipped one into the bunker; he’d go on to make a bogey. He’d play his last eight holes at four-over par, while Scottie Scheffler (+500) would play the same holes in five-under! He’d make up nine shots in those eight holes and has a chance for his second career win — and his second in the last five starts.

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The odds-on favorite to win right now is Billy Horshcel (+275), who looked very good in spurts this week. He’ll go into the final round tied with Talor Gooch (+300), also looking for his second win on the season. There are plenty of chasers as well, as course and playing conditions are expected to be challenging yet again tomorrow. Expect a winning score right around -6 or -7 tomorrow. That likely puts anyone that is at least two-under or better in play to win. So let’s see what values we can find going into the final round.

Round 4 Golf Betting Picks Today | Arnold Palmer Invitational

Top Outright Candidate: Rory McIlroy+1600

Sure Sunday Rory McIlroy hasn’t been great this year, but nothing changes that like a course that is suited ideally for him. He sits just four back, and the way the course is playing, he could go out and birdie three of his first six holes and be tied for the lead. If that’s the case, the +1600 number will be gone before you know it and likely would become the odds-on favorite to win. He’ll be out well before the leaders as well, coming in at -3, and will have a chance to post a score and wait for the last three groups to come in. On top of that, he’s also playing with a friend and countrymate, Graeme McDowell (+8000). Lastly, Gary Woodland (+1800) has put himself into contention for the second straight week and could steal a victory here with a round of 68 or better tomorrow.

Middle-Tier Outright Candidate: Corey Conners +8000

Known as one of the best-ball strikers on tour, Conners excels in these types of conditions, using his ball-striking prowess to overcome the wind. With similar conditions expected tomorrow, and just five back of the lead, Conners has a chance to go out and post a low one. He gained over a stroke in every category today, showing his short game is very much enjoying the switch to Bermuda here this week. With a tie for third already at this event, Conners should know what it feels like to be under pressure here at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

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Deep Shot: Will Zalatoris (100/1)

This last spot was either going to go Zalatoris or Jon Rahm (+8000) and while the signs are encouraging for Rahm, who switched putters and found instant success with the new one, but just hasn’t been on point enough to make a big run. Zalatoris, on the other hand, had a bad stretch of golf in round two, bogeying the first three holes and last four holes he played. But, take out those seven holes of golf, and he’s in the lead by 1. I know that’s probably a pretty obvious statement, but he’s playing a bit better than his score indicates. He’ll need to turn in the round of the day and likely shoot one of the low rounds of the tournament to pull out a win on Sunday, but at least his stats suggest he’s got a chance at it. If the sportsbook you use offers top-5 odds, both Zalatoris and Conners would be intriguing for those bets.


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Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].

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