The Masters may be over, but that doesn’t mean the PGA season has come to an end. We still have a few tournaments left in the 2020 calendar, and although they aren’t majors, they still have plenty of significance to the players teeing it up. FedEx points are up for grabs as well as a boatload of cash and the ability for some lesser-known players to grab a win on tour. This week the tour heads to Sea Island Golf Club in Georgia for the RSM Classic, which is a staple of the PGA Tour season. We’ll have quite a bit of information when scouring the books for the best PGA odds. Players will get to play two courses during the opening two rounds, so this event is a little different than most. For information on the courses make sure to check out the Above the Cut DFS article, which breaks down the course and DFS plays for this week.
Unlike last week where we had a ton of big name players at the top of the outright market, this event is more unpredictable based on the field. This means we will have opportunities for big payoffs, but we will have to back guys that aren’t consistent winners or top-end talents given the options available. Let’s dive into what we have in store on the betting side of things for the RSM.
Golf Betting Picks: RSM Classic PGA Futures/Outright Winners
Golf Betting Pick: Kevin Kisner (45-1, DraftKings)
Kevin Kisner won this event back in 2016 and is a proven winner on the PGA Tour. He comes off a missed cut at the Masters, which was disappointing, but that was a completely different test than what he faces here. He is a South Carolina native, went to college at Georgia and has been vocal about how much experience he has at this course. It’s not a surprise he plays this event every year and has a proven track record of getting it done at the RSM.
The game isn’t in great shape for Kisner, but that is why he is sitting at 45-1 in the outright market. He is at his best when he leans on the irons and putting, which is exactly what one needs to do here. Distance isn’t going to be a huge benefit, and there are few guys on tour I would rather back at an accuracy/putting contest like this. He is always going to be in the conversation on short tracks like this, but he is even more dangerous when on Bermuda greens. A line of 45-1 is too big of price, and the spotty form is more a concern in DFS than in an outright bet.
Golf Betting Pick: Sam Burns (66-1, William Hill)
This number has come down a bit, so there could be some 70-1 lines still out there depending on what is available to you. Regardless, this is a huge price on a guy who I believe will win on tour sooner rather than later. Sam Burns is another player who strongly prefers playing down in the Southeast on Bermuda, where he has major putting splits.
Although the driver is a weapon for Burns, he has shown he has a well-rounded game and comes in on fire. In his last event in Houston he gained a massive 11.1 strokes tee to green and finished seventh despite losing 1.5 strokes putting. If he continues to strike it that well we are going to have a sweat here and this number won’t be available in similar spots going forward. Burns already has eight top 10s in his career, so its not going to be a shock if he once again is in contention come Sunday. At a price like this we don’t need a huge position for a large payday, and Burns certainly made my outright card this week.
Wanna Bet?
Ben Rasa has pinpointed Sam Burns as a decent value, based on the PGA odds and golf odds for this week’s RSM Classic. Burns at 66-1 could be a good golf betting pick. Find the rest of the PGA odds using Awesemo’s new OddsShopper tool, and track your golf betting picks all week. For more golf odds, click here.
PGA Betting Top 10
Golf Betting Pick: Harry Higgs (16-1, DraftKings)
As I’ve mentioned, this field just doesn’t have the top end that a major does, so we are going to have opportunities for guys who aren’t at the top of the leaderboard often. Harry Higgs has all the talent he needs to compete on tour and can really go low, but the consistency and stability are the issues. That makes him a volatile DFS play and a guy that is certainly better suited in outright or top-10 bets over a head-to-head matchup.
Backing Higgs to win the tournament gives you a chance for a massive payday, but it’s a real longshot with a very low chance to cash. A top-10 still gives you 16-1 on your money, but we have a much wider path to chasing this ticket, as Higgs has three career top-10s already. Two of those were runner-up finishes, so we know he can hang in; it’s just a matter of avoiding mistakes. I like this event for Higgs, who finished 35th last year despite losing 2.7 strokes with the short game. He gained 4.8 ball striking, and that is a recipe for success. The putter is high variance just like the rest of his game, and this price is good enough to roll the dice on a good showing here.
PGA To Make the Cut
Golf Betting Pick: C.T. Pan — Yes (-159, DraftKings)
I rarely bet wagers on making or missing the cut, but this week I dove in and found a few that were interesting. This bet is simple: You back a player to either make or miss the cut, and if you get that right, after Friday you win your bet. With this being a full field, making the weekend will be much tougher than last week, but C.T. Pan to me is in fantastic position to do just that.
Pan should be coming in with confidence off a top-10 finish at Augusta, which was unexpected for most. He now comes to a course he’s played three times and has a 13th and sixth-place finishes over those attempts. He can lean on his irons and putting, as distance isn’t overly important. That is why this should be a great course fit for Pan.
In addition to these two courses fitting his eye, we can easily compare this event to RBC Heritage, which is another second-shot course in a similar geographical area. Pan has one win in his PGA Tour career, and that happened to be at Harbour Town, the host of the RBC Heritage. This furthers the point that Pan has a course type that brings out the best of his game, and this falls straight into that category.
The price is juiced a bit at -159, but when we factor in the strength of the field and the course layout, it is still a position I’m willing to take. Pan has made seven straight cuts and 9-of-10, so we are really just asking him to continue the form that he’s shown for several months now. This is a different way to get some exposure to golfers, and I will look to take advantage of this spot.
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Quick Notes
If you are unfamiliar with PGA betting or are just looking to dive into it for the first time, make sure to try and understand each type of bet and how to properly allocate bankroll for each. When choosing a few outrights at long odds, we are hoping to hit one of those a year as it would pay for the entire season and then some. Think of that as the large-field GPPs where you hope to tread water and then rely on a big hit once every year or so to do major damage.
On the other side, we have head-to-head bets, which, naturally, are more like cash games or head-to-heads in DFS where you aren’t going to win a huge multiplier of your money, but also should be hitting them at a reasonable clip. Getting a clearer picture of what each bet is like is important as this is a long season with a lot of opportunities to take some stabs at these PGA odds.
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