Welcome to The Heaters! For each UFC card, I will provide three wild UFC betting picks that I find interesting. This week, we’re looking at the UFC Fight Island 7 card.
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UFC Fight Island 7 MMA Betting Picks: The Heaters
Carlos Condit via KO/TKO +430
All week I have been praising Carlos Condit, and I think this is a nice spot for him to get a finish. In Condit’s career he has finished 90% of his 31 professional victories. Matt Brown is a tough opponent, but over the years he has become less durable. I prefer Condit inside the distance, but think Condit via KO/TKO at +430 is a nice spot.
Joaquin Buckley by Decision +275
I know this may sound crazy, but the highlight-reel knockouts have inflated Buckley’s odds, and especially his prop bet via KO/TKO at +105. When I competed on the same card as Buckley for Bellator, he wasn’t this knockout machine. He was a physical guy who would work towards solidifying rounds with takedowns. In this bout against Alessio Di Chirico, Buckley will be tested and have to be more methodical. Di Chirico will test Buckley in all facets of the game, and to Di Chirico’s credit, he has never been knocked out. I like the odds of Buckley via decision at +275.
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Vanessa Melo by Decision +300
Vanessa Melo is still searching for her first UFC victory, but I think she can upset Sarah Moras here. Melo will have to defend the inevitable takedowns from Moras and outclass her opponent on the feet. In the past we have seen Melo taken down and controlled, so that is my one worry. Besides that, I think Melo is a live underdog, and based on the likelihood of this going the distance, I think she can steal this fight. Melo by decision sits at +300.
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