We are still ways away from the major sports leagues possibly returning, but that doesn’t mean that there is nothing to wager on. Certainly League of Legends and some lesser-known sports are up and running, but don’t forget about horse racing which never went away. It’s true that the Kentucky Derby and other major races had to be postponed, but we still have racing without fans late in each week.
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Oaklawn Park in Arkansas has been holding their meet and have some quality races upcoming on the docket. The Arkansas Derby, which is a Kentucky Derby prep race, is coming up in early May, but this Saturday, April 18, we have some big time races to break down. Horse racing may be something that you are unfamiliar with, but it uses a lot of the same concepts that we lean on in Sports betting and DFS. Below is an article that talks about the intro to betting the ponies if you are looking for the basics.
/sports-betting/a-guide-to-betting-on-horse-racing/
Keep in mind this article is being written before the scratches were finalized. Make sure that you double check who is still in each race as some horses may be scratched between now and post time.
Early Race Thoughts
First Race — Rivers of Lite 7/2
We have some stakes races on the card at Oaklawn, but before that we have to get thru some of the earlier races. These won’t have the big time purses of the stakes races, but that doesn’t mean we ignore them and it actually can open the door for some quality prices. The first race on the card is incredibly ugly as it is full of horses looking for their first career victory. If that wasn’t bad enough we have a lot of horses that have more than a few starts under their belt and still haven’t hit the board or been in contention much. This most likely means we don’t have a ton of talent to choose from, but I still have a lean right off the bat.
Rivers of Lite is making just his second career start so we don’t have as much information on him. I actually think that’s a positive as he was fourth in his 1st start and actually was making a mild charge late in that race. He has ran at Oaklawn before so nothing should rattle him in terms of the track and with only one start its possible this horse is better than the competition. If you are betting Pick 3’s or other multi race bets this is a spot where you could open up the card as none of these horses are going to stand out. If Rivers of Lite can go off a reasonable price (morning line 7-2) it could be the start we are looking for on this Oaklawn Saturday.
Third Race — Lovely Lou 5/2Â
Horse Racing has pari-mutuel wagering which means that the odds will constantly be changing leading up to post time. We have morning lines to go off of, but as more and more money is bet we should see some horses emerge as betting favorites. The conditions of the track and other factors such as scratches will also play a major role in seeing who goes off the post time favorite.
In the third race we have a maiden special which means horses looking for their first W. Lovely Lou has raced at Oaklawn park 4 times and is yet to find the winner circle, but has been as close as you can get. The horse has two 2nds and two 3rds in the four career starts so he has hit the board every time despite not winning. This is a weak race with not a lot that stands out and if you are looking for a favorite to mix in some Pick 3 type wagers this makes sense.
Stakes Races
Eighth Race — Count Fleet Spring Handicap (Grade 3)
The first big race up is the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap which has a 350k purse and some big name horses in attendance. This is a six furlong race so getting a fast start and getting to the front both are going to be key aspects of this sprint.
The first horse who stands out in the field is Whitmore, who has won this exact race in both 2017 and 2018 before finishing 2nd last year. Clearly they have the experience and talent to win once again, but there are a ton of contenders with better odds in the field.
Hidden Scroll (4-1) is a horse that is incredibly difficult to figure out as they burst onto the scene in 2019 and looked to be a serious Kentucky Derby threat. Unfortunately a disappointing showing in both the Fountain of Youth and Florida derby ended that dream. Finally last month we saw another flash of life from this horse as they dominated a weak field at Gulfstream to get back in the winners circle for the first time since his first career start. The speed figures were there, but the quality of competition was not so that is something that will need to be factored in. This is the wildcard for this race as the talent is there, but the letdowns have been apparent in big spots like this one.
Race 10 Apple Blossom Handicap (Grade 1)
Race 10 has a 600k purse and the girls take center stage as they bring some of the best fillies and mares onto the track. This is a longer race then the sprint we talked about earlier as they horses will be going a mile and a sixteenth around the track.
Come Dancing (3-1)
Come Dancing is the morning line favorite and its easy to see why when you look at her history. She has 8 wins in 14 career starts including multiple stakes races so the competition was there. Her last race was in the Breeders Cup Filly and Mares Sprint where she ran poorly, but before that she ripped off 4 wins in 5 starts. We haven’t seen this horse in some time which is a reasonable concern, but just looking over the history its clear why they are sitting at 3-1.
Serengeti Empress (4-1)
To me is the logical choice here is you want to go against Come Dancing as she just won the Azeri Stakes at Oaklawn in March. This horse has plenty of experience against top end competition, but having seen her at this track recently to me is a big boost. I wouldn’t be shocked to see her go off the post time favorite as I think the money will end up falling to her throughout today.
If you want to take a shot with a bigger price then look at the 1 horse in Ollie’s Candy. Sitting at 12-1 he is going to go off a big price even though he probably is outmatched in this field. The speed figures are solid, but the results have been average at best with 1 win in his last 8 starts. He has never raced here at Oaklawn which on one hand is a negative, but also could be the reason people are overlooking this horse. If they can get out strong I wouldn’t be stunned to see them in the hunt as they turn from home and will look to them in exacta and other exotic type wagers.
Final Thoughts
Two stakes races on the card is all we can ask for given the situation across the country, and these fields are loaded with talent. Again keep an eye on the scratches as that will change things and also monitor the odds as they will be moving as we get closer to post time. Horse racing can produce some big time payouts, while also being incredibly frustrating as there is a ton of variance in each race. With these stakes races we have info on the horses which makes things easier, while the maiden races are full of non-winners looking to break the streak. As the day unfolds our strategy may change so hop in our Premium_sportbetting slack to discuss strategies and hopefully sweat what will be a big day at the track for all of us!
Good Luck!
