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Horse Racing Betting Picks and Analysis: Breeders’ Cup Classic | Saturday, 11/7

Ben Rasa

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In the Horse Racing world we have Triple Crown season, which is when the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes all take place. Those races are for three year old horses, but for horses of all ages the biggest day in the racing calendar certainly is the Breeders’ Cup. This is where we crown the champions for all types of races so expect sprints, turf races and much much more during the day. The biggest prize up for grabs is The Classic, which has a loaded field full of big time horses with impressive resumes. Similar to the Triple Crowns races, we have a bunch of public money in these paramutual pools and it can make for gigantic paydays if we are able to find a few horses that get in the mix. Lets dive into this field and see who sets up to as the best Breeders’ Cup betting picks.

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Horse Racing Betting: Breeders’ Cup Classic Picks

The Field

Post Time: 5:18 p.m. EST Saturday, Nov. 7th at Keeneland

As you can see we have a 10 horse field with no heavy favorite which is great for betting purposes. We have Tiz the Law and Authentic who both won triple crown races this year and sit as the betting favorites on the morning line. In addition we have Maximum Security sitting at 7-2 who is remembered for being disqualified after winning the Kentucky Derby in 2019. There are a handful of horses who are sitting 20-1+ that are going to need the race of their life to get in the mix against a field like this.

Trainer Bob Baffert has three horses in the field all who have realistic shots in Improbable, Authentic and Maximum Security. Of the three I lean to Improbable who comes in having won three straight Grade 1 stakes races including one over Maximum Security out in California.


Be sure to check out Ben Rasa and Evan Schwartz in the Breeders’ Cup Betting Picks video on our Awesemo YouTube Channel.


The Contenders

Improbable 5-2: Certainly all three Baffert horses are in play but as I just mentioned Improbable is in the best form and I think the most dangerous if you want to with a favorite.

Tiz the Law 3-1: At one point looked to be destined for the triple crown but was defeated in the Kentucky Derby by Authentic. Jockey Manny Franco is aboard as usual, and he will look to get Tiz the Law back to the form we saw earlier in the year when he was dominating the competition. The price is what concerns me as I want better than 3-1 if I am going to take a position here.

Tom’s d’Etat 6-1: Not a horse you would be familiar with if you just watch the Triple Crown races as he never raced in them and is also much older than horses like Tiz the Law. Tom’s d’Etat has Joel Rosario aboard and has won four of his last five races including a Grade 1 in November of 2019. In his last race which was the Grade 1 Whitney at Saratoga he finished third and was beaten by Improbable, but he broke horribly which is a reasonable excuse. If he gets out of the gate on Saturday we will see a much better effort and he is certainly dangerous.

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Breeders’ Cup Betting Picks

Although there is always an appeal of trying to hit a horse at big time odds its hard to see major longshot being able to beat all the talent in this field. The three Baffert horses are all very strong and Tom’s d’Etat has shown the ability to contend with the best over his career. He is sitting 6-1 on the morning line and that is where I will be putting my money in terms of a win bet. His slow start out of the gate in the Whitney I think is causing him to go overlooked and I expect a big time performance.

Breeders’ Cup Winner: Tom’s d’Etat (6-1)

Although there is always an appeal of trying to hit a horse at big time odds its hard to see major longshot being able to beat all the talent in this field. The three Baffert horses are all very strong and Tom’s d’Etat has shown the ability to contend with the best over his career. He is sitting 6-1 on the morning line and that is where I will be putting my money in terms of a win bet. His slow start out of the gate in the Whitney I think is causing him to go overlooked and I expect a big time performance.

Breeders’ Cup Exacta Box: Improbable with Tom’s d’Etat with By My Standards

If you want to bet some exotics which means things like picking the 1st and 2nd place finishers (exacta) or 1st 2nd and 3rd (trifecta) you will have opportunities for big time payouts as these are much harder to hit and thus much longer odds. Obviously I am going to recommend using Tom’s d’Etat as part of these tickets and I’ll throw in Improbable as the favorite who pairs nicely in something like an exacta. If you need a third horse and want to take a shot By My Standards sits at 10-1 and similar to Tom’s d’Etat comes into this race a little undervalued even if they aren’t the horses to beat. Boxing those 3 in an exacta will give you some different outs and some nice room for upside especially if a horse like By My Standards is able to grab a piece of the board.

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*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].

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