Looking into UFC Vegas 30, a number of prop bets look particularly intriguing ahead of this Saturday’s card. When looking at these thin markets, using Awesemo’s OddsShopper tool to find the UFC Vegas odds remains crucial to maximizing profits. With the card only hours away, I’ll get into how to bet on UFC fights with some of the best prop betting odds and picks so we can start cashing on some of these big-hitting tickets.
UFC Betting Odds & Picks for Vegas 30: Gane vs. Volkov
Andre Fili +225 by Knockout (SugarHouse)
Andre Fili takes on Daniel Pineda in the men’s featherweight division. Fili enters this fight with a 9-7 record at the UFC level after fighting some of the division’s top competition. Meanwhile, Pineda has a 4-5 record with two separate stints in the UFC. Pineda relies primarily on his black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and while Fili has been submitted twice, his wrestling generally has up on the mat. Fili averages 2.50 takedowns per bout, and Pineda has just 44% takedown defense. While Fili must be careful of Pineda’s jiu-jitsu, his wrestling gives him a chance to ground and pound Pineda from top position. On the feet Fili lands 3.73 significant strikes per minute and faces Pineda’s porous 44% striking defense. Fili also has nine professional wins by knockout. Pineda has been knocked out three times in his career, including in his most recent outing against Cub Swanson. While Fili looks unlikely to submit Pineda, his +225 odds with this knockout prop is live against Pineda’s questionable chin.
Raoni Barcelos +400 by Knockout (William Hill)
Raoni Barcelos takes on Timur Valiev. 5-0 in the UFC, Barcelos has eight knockouts and two submission wins professionally. While Barcelos fought to a decision in his last two bouts, he finished his first three UFC fights. Barcelos has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and previously competed for Brazil’s National Wrestling Team. He is also lethal on the feet, landing 5.59 significant strikes while defending strikes at 67%. Valiev already showed questionable durability after getting knocked out in his UFC debut by Trevin Jones, who fought on just a few days’ notice. Barcelos also lands 2.23 takedowns on average against Valiev’s 50% takedown defense. This gives Barcelos another path to a knockout victory via ground and pound. Already -220 to win the fight overall, taking Barcelos by knockout at +400 provides significantly better odds. Even a small wager could lead to a sizable payout.
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Shavkat Rakhmonov +225 by Knockout (BetMGM)
The biggest favorite of the night, Shavkat Rakhmonov faces Michel Prazeres in the men’s welterweight division. Rakhmonov is 13-0 and has finished every opponent to date. Prazeres enters this bout at age 39, coming off a two-year USADA suspension. After routinely missing weight at 155, Prazeres is now one of the smallest fighters in the 170-pound division. Rakhmonov has an absurd seven-inch height and 10-inch reach advantage over Prazeres. Stylistically Prazeres wins with his jiu-jitsu. He is a second-degree black belt and has 11 of 26 professional wins via submission. However, Rakhmonov’s length poses a major problem. On the feet Rakhmonov has seven of 13 professional wins coming via knockout. With Prazeres’ prowess on the mat, a submission looks unlikely for Rakhmonov. However, his power and length pose a major problem for Prazeres. This fight is +120 to go to a decision, suggesting a finish. With Rakhmonov favored at -300 and far more likely to secure a knockout over a submission, the +225 knockout prop looks like a sharp bet.
Tim Means +410 by Knockout (BetMGM)
Tim Means takes a short-notice bout against Nicolas Dalby here in a fight that was originally supposed to be on last week’s card. While both fighters have made two stints in the UFC, Means fought the superior strength of schedule. Means recently defeated Laureano Staropoli and Mike Perry, while Dalby enters this fight after winning a questionable decision over Daniel Rodriguez. He was also submitted in his second-most recent fight against Jesse Ronson. The fight was subsequently ruled a no-contest due to a positive drug test for Ronson. On the feet Means has a strong advantage, with 19 knockout victories and 5.16 significant strikes per minute to 3.58 strikes absorbed. Dalby absorbs 3.57 strikes per minute with a negative striking ratio and 55% striking defense. Dalby also tends to bleed in his fights, making him a risk for a doctor’s stoppage. While Dalby hasn’t been knocked out in competition, durability has come into question at age 36. With the superior body of work and clear knockout power, sprinkling a little bit on this UFC betting pick of Means +410 by knockout provides a path to a large payday.
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