Following news Tuesday afternoon that Theo Maledon would be making a surprise start for the Oklahoma City Thunder, the feeling of having written up Kenrich Williams‘ assist prop for Tuesday’s NBA betting picks (as the article’s cover nonetheless) sent a shiver through my spine. Although Williams still wound up starting, it wasn’t at point guard, and he played just 19.7 minutes while registering merely 1 assist on a 2.5-assist prop line.
With that said, having our recent hot streak disrupted is something I take personally, so we’ll lick our wounds and take to Thursday’s three-game slate. From a rematch of Bucks – Raptors from Tuesday to a potential NBA Finals preview between the Lakers and Nets, Thursday’s action has plenty to usher us into the weekend. Jumping over to he Player Props on OddsShopper, we’ll seek to identify any weaknesses in the odds while cross-referencing player stats, rotations and team trends to lock in the best values among Thursday’s NBA betting picks. Tonight we’ll focus on Dennis Schroder and James Harden.
NBA Betting Picks: NBA Odds & Player Props | Feb. 18
NBA Pick: G Dennis Schroder, OVER 4.5 Assists (+115, PointsBet)
The Lakers will be relying heavily on LeBron James and, as his co-star, Anthony Davis, is slated to miss at least two to three weeks with Achilles tendinosis. Schroder should be a key role player in Davis’ absence, logging 31.1 minutes per game this season and 34.25 minutes on average when Davis has missed time. Tonight he has a moderate player prop line of 4.5 assists at +115 on the over. Although it’s 1 assist above a comfortable line, seeing the uptick in Schroder’s minutes while Davis is absent makes a case for the plus-money endeavor.
Averaging 4.3 assists per game this season and 4.5 for his career, Schroder has managed a 19% assist rate in his debut year with the Lakers. With Davis set to miss a significant amount of time, Schroder sees more playing time and thus more production. With Davis off the court, Schroder averaged 3.45 assists per 36 minutes when playing alongside LeBron, yet he averages 5.45 assists when running solo (which is roughly 30% of his floor time when Davis is absent). In the six games Davis has missed this season, Schroder has averaged exactly 4.5 assists, with totals of 4, 6, 4, 5, 5 and 3. While recently hovering in the vicinity of our desired assist total, Schroder has also registered a season high of 8 assists.
Facing a Nets team catching fire since their mega-trade for James Harden, the pace-up spot should lead to more assist opportunities for Schroder. With the Nets allowing 25.1 assists per game (17th NBA) and 8.3 assists on average to opposing point guards, Schroder securing 5 or more assists at plus-money is a solid value.
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NBA Pick: G James Harden, OVER 7.5 Rebounds (+105, BetRivers & DraftKings SportsBook)
Tonight OddsShopper shows Harden with a 7.5-rebound total with +105 odds on the over. Considering what we’ve seen of him in Brooklyn thus far, this rebound total is an incredible value at plus-money NBA betting odds.
Harden is currently averaging 8.4 rebounds per game with the Nets, 3.3 more rebounds per game than his final days in Houston this season. In fact, Harden is seeing his career-high numbers in rebounds through his 16 games with Brooklyn, besting the previous 11 seasons. Harden’s recent rebound totals are proof alone of this consistency, averaging 9 per game over his past 10 performances. With Kevin Durant off the floor, Harden’s rebound total increases slightly to 7.82 rebounds per 36 minutes, and that will be the case here this evening.
The Lakers allow 6.1 rebounds per game to points guards, but that loses some validity with them missing a key defensive member in Davis. Plus-money odds on Harden getting at least 8 rebounds seems like a steal in and of itself. Although the Lakers are also surrendering 41.5 rebounds per game to opponents (third in NBA), the absence of Davis in the post will surely impact their rebounding abilities, and no Durant only helps Harden’s cause. Snagging this player prop on Harden while you can get it at such favorable odds is highly recommended for Thursday night’s NBA betting picks.
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