Another NBA Thursday is prime for the prop market, with a five-game slate in tow for this evening and some exciting matchups. Making our way over to OddsShopper, we’ll dive into the Player Props subcategories to seek out any weaknesses in the NBA betting odds while cross-referencing player stats and rotations alongside recent team trends to help solidify the best values available for our NBA betting picks. Tonight we’re focusing on Jimmy Butler and Justin Holiday prop bets.
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NBA Betting Picks: NBA Odds & Player Props | Feb. 11
NBA Pick: F Jimmy Butler, OVER 7.5 Rebounds (+110, BetMGM & William Hill Sportsbook)
Jimmy Butler‘s rebound player prop of 7.5 boards has +110 NBA odds on the over. Seeing plus-money on a feasible rebound line for Butler given his production this season makes for an intriguing endeavor among Thursday’s potential NBA betting picks.
In his 12 games played this season, Butler has averaged 6.9 rebounds per game, which is a notch above last season’s 6.7 average. Albeit a small sample size, Butler has recently seen an uptick in rebounds as he’s averaged 8.33 in his past six games following a COVID absence. For comparison’s sake, Butler’s rebounding rate has improved to 10.8% in 2021 (up from 9.8% in 2020) and 12.3% in his recent six-game sample. Since his return to action, Butler is Miami’s second-leading rebounder, averaging 19% of the team’s rebounds per game.
Facing a Rockets team that ranks 19th in rebounds per game, Butler should see a fair opportunity to match his recently improved rebounding numbers. Also worth considering is that Houston is allowing 8.8 rebounds per game to opposing small forwards (fifth most in NBA). With odds just above even-money at +110, Butler’s rebounding makes for good value among your NBA betting picks.
NBA Pick: F Justin Holiday, OVER 1.5 Assists (+115, William Hill Sportsbook)
Heading into the second leg of a back-to-back, the Pacers draw the inconsistent Pistons for Thursday’s matchup. For his miniscule assist total tonight, Justin Holiday has +115 betting odds on the over. Given his playing time and the matchup, this is a strong NBA bet that is going under the radar.
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Holiday is registering 33 minutes per game this season, and he has started 16 of 25 games. With 1.51 assists per game, our likelihood of cashing out on this player prop appears dicey on the surface. Yet looking a bit closer, Holiday’s assist totals have risen slightly since the return of teammate Jeremy Lamb to the starting lineup. Holiday is now averaging 2.91 assists per 48 minutes, and his assist rate has also grown in Lamb’s rejoining, up to 7.9% in his past 12 games (from 6.3%). He registered a season high of five assists when he was coming off the bench. In his past five games, here are Holiday’s assist totals: 2, 1, 4, 3 and 2.
Taking on a Detroit team that has allowed 3.7 assists per game to small forwards this season, Holiday may not have as much trouble getting to our desired total. With the eighth-most assists per game allowed, Detroit is one of the preferred opponents for Holiday to have drawn on an evening where we’re chasing this prop bet. We will get back 115% of our investment if Holiday gets just 2 assists, so his pick is a no-brainer.
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