It may be a tad easier to navigate among our NBA prop bet picks and lineups provided what we already learned from yesterday’s catastrophe. Much like Josh Engleman discussed on “The Process” show this morning, we can assume those with lingering injuries yesterday will sit again on Thursday. This information paves a bit of daylight toward which players we know are among the actives and how to steer our player props for the last slate before All-Star Weekend.
With that in mind, we’ll make our way to OddsShopper to seek out the best NBA player prop bets available for Thursday night, as we cross-reference player stats, rotations, and recent team trends in order to identify the best values among NBA odds for Thursday’s nine-game endeavor. Tonight we’ll focus on Kemba Walker and Nikola Jokic.
Thursday’s NBA Betting Picks & Player Prop Bets | March 4
Kemba Walker, OVER 4.5 AST (-105, FanDuel Sportsbook)
On the eve of the NBA All-Star break, despite many players beginning to take a bit of extra rest, there’s still ground to be gained (or lost) with one game remaining before the time off. In an Eastern Conference where just one game in the standings means the difference between eighth and fourth, the Celtics will be looking to hang on to fourth with a win tonight. Looking at OddsShopper, Walker has a lower prop of 4.5 assists with -105 on the over. Walker’s assists are on the uptick lately, so this looks like good value.
Walker has seen a decrease in minutes from last season, logging 29.8 minutes per game this season (down from 31.1 in 2019-20). Compared to his 4.8 assists per game last season, Walker is averaging 4.5 dishes per game in 2021, yet his assist rate is actually close to a full percentage higher this year. He is also averaging 4.9 assists per game over his past 10. Five assists against Toronto (who struggles against point guards) is more than manageable, especially with -105 odds.
Facing off with a Toronto team who will be without Fred VanVleet, Boston’s scoring may come a bit easier in some situations The Raptors rank 28th in assists allowed per game. They also surrender 8.7 assists per game to opposing point guards. With this line and a favorable matchup, Walker makes for good value for tonight’s NBA betting picks.
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Nikola Jokic, OVER 11.5 REB (+100, William Hill Sportsbook)
With some stingy NBA odds in place today, we’ll take the value where we can find it. Jokic is having the best season of his career, producing his highest totals in points, rebounds and assists by a considerable margin. Tonight he has a player prop of 11.5 rebounds with +100 odds on the over. Twelve rebounds is just a hair above his season average, so the plus money is appealing.
Jokic is absolutely torching opponents in the post, averaging 11.0 rebounds per game and a 15.9% rebound rate. The Nuggets surrender the fourth-fewest rebounds to opponents per game at 42.1, and Jokic is registering the most playing time on average of his career at nearly 36 minutes a game. One may be skeptical of the lofty rebound total, yet the quality of opponent makes the line understandable and the odds rewarding. Jokic’s rebounding totals in his past 12 games played are: 13, 16, 6, 7, 12, 12, 10, 5, 11, 11, 14 and 10.
Jokic draws a favorable matchup in Indiana, a team that is allowing 44.8 rebounds per game to opposing teams (19th). The Pacers also rank 29th in the NBA allowing rebounds to centers, surrendering 16.5 boards per game. Even money on a rebound total Jokic could feasibly squash against against a bad rebounding team makes him a top betting target tonight.
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