Another Tuesday NBA slate is upon us, carrying the same anticipation we tend to bring to smaller slates. Despite lacking the vast presentation of options a large slate offers, the smaller to mid-sized slates still have plenty to be excited about, especially considering there are still a number of player props with significant NBA odds value to include in our NBA betting picks. The silver lining to a smaller slate can be the extra time allowed per game to spend trying to identify said value — especially on Kenrich Williams.
Logging into OddsShopper, we’ll head to the player props subcategories as always, while cross-referencing player stats, rotations, and recent team trends in effort to identify this Tuesday’s best NBA odds available to include to our selection of betting picks for the day. Tonight we’re going to focus on Brook Lopez and Kenrich Williams.
NBA Betting Picks: NBA Odds & Player Props | Feb. 16
NBA Pick: C Brook Lopez, OVER 5.5 Rebounds (+120, William Hill Sportsbook)
The Bucks have had some minor struggles but are still tied for the second seed in the Eastern Conference. As the Bucks welcome the 12-15 Raptors to Fiserv Forum, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez should be looking to clean up the glass this evening against one of the league’s worst rebounding teams. On OddsShopper, Giannis has a high rebound total of 13.5 rebounds at +103, while we find Lopez with a 5.5-rebound total at +120 NBA odds. Giannis’ prop is more than doable (averaging 13 rebounds this season), but the value on Lopez stands out.
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Averaging 6.3 rebounds over the course of his career and 5.1 per game this season, Lopez has calmed his rebounding pace since his last season in Brooklyn, when he averaged 5.4 boards and saw his total decline until the uptick this year. In his third year with the Bucks, Lopez is posting his best rebounding average in Milwaukee while seeing an increase in playing time from last year at 27.1 minutes per game. With a 10.3% rebound rate over his past seven games, Lopez’s rebound totals in that frame are 6, 6, 5, 7, 6, 6 and 2. That last game Lopez only played 20 minutes and sat the entire fourth quarter after playing an ineffective 1-for-4 shooting.
Squaring off with the Raptors may remedy the funk from last game for Lopez. Toronto is tied with Miami as the league’s worst rebounding team, with 42.0 boards per game. With a 48.7% rebound rate, the Raptors are tied for 21st with Miami and Oklahoma City while allowing 15.6 rebounds per game to opposing centers (tied-22nd). Needing 6 rebounds from Lopez to cash on this player prop at 120% on your investment is more than fair, especially considering Lopez’s opponent.
NBA Pick: G/F Kenrich Williams, OVER 3.5 Assists (+118, William Hill Sportsbook)
As wounded as they come, the Thunder are currently a collaboration of forwards and centers while injuries and COVID-19 designations have hindered the team massively. Typically playing forward, Kenrich Williams shifts over to a guard role in the absence of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Theo Maledon. With that role, Williams’ assist prop of 3.5 at +118 on the over is sticking out on OddsShopper. With his new role and the lack of guards for Oklahoma City, this prop looks more than reachable.
While Williams’ career assist numbers as a small and power forward don’t reflect inspiring totals, he’s averaging 1.7 assists this season and for his career. The Thunder have been plagued by an avalanche of injuries, so Williams has started sharing backcourt minutes with Hamidou Diallo and Luguentz Dort in the past two games. His 13.3% season assist rate jumped to 26.4%, as he registered 9 and 5 assists in the recent period. Although it’s a small sample size, Williams played this role with his previous Pelicans team, where he averaged nearly 3 assists per 36 minutes when their starting guards missed time.
Portland has allowed 24.9 assists per game to opponents (16th NBA), with 8.2 assists allowed to opposing point guards on average. Getting rather friendly betting odds at +118 on Williams to notch just 4 assists (he is averaging 35 minutes in his past two games) makes for an inviting wager and some of the best odds for Tuesday.
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