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NHL Betting Picks: Kings vs. Wild | Feb. 16
The Kings and the Wild meet up here for the fourth time this season. The Wild took three of the first four games from the Kings, but two of those meetings were 1-goal overtime wins, so the series has been quite close up to this point. Seven or more goals have been scored in three of the four games as well, with only the Kings 2-1 win on Jan. 26 resulting in a low-scoring game.
The Kings come in off a dominant 6-2 win over San Jose four nights ago, which looks good on paper, but the win was their first in seven games. Los Angeles has a 4-6-3 record right now and sits last in the West division despite having a far better goal differential than both Anaheim and San Jose. The Kings given up the ninth-most goals against on the season thus far but have improved their goal scoring a touch, as they are averaging 3.1 goals per game, a big improvement over last year’s 2.5 mark in the same area.
Minnesota has been off for two weeks straight now as the team deals with COVID-19 shutdowns and protocols. Minnesota is 6-5 in the West division and have only played 11 games (two fewer than Los Angeles ) and will obviously have the rest advantage if nothing else. Minnesota’s been solid on defense, giving up just 2.7 goals per game, but their offense has been lacking. Special teams play was a big issue for the Wild before their hiatus, as they ranked dead last in power-play efficiency. So far they have had solid contributions from two new faces; goalie Cam Talbot comes in with a 3-2 record and a .920 save percentage, while rookie winger Kirill Kaprizov now has 9 points in 11 games and is in the running for Rookie of the Year.
Best Bet: Under 5.5 goals -110, Los Angeles Kings vs. Minnesota Wild (FanDuel)
While these two teams have put up some goals in their first four meetings, neither is an offensive dynamo. As mentioned above, the Wild are last in power-play percentage and have scored just 2.7 goals per game this year, which is 0.5 less than their mark in that stat last year. While they have the potential and talent to turn things around in the scoring department soon, they are also coming off a two-week hiatus, which leans me towards the under. Over the last two nights, we have seen the Sabres and Avalanche come back from similar layoffs and score exactly 1 goal between them.
Rust is going to be a factor here tonight for Minnesota, and we really can’t expect the Kings offense to do us many favors either. Los Angeles may be scoring a bit more in 2021, but they are last in expected goal rate (xGF%) and don’t have a ton of high-end goal scorers, so regression could be coming for their offense soon. The trend for teams playing off these long rests has been to play in slow, low-scoring games their first time back, and with the current profiles of these two teams, I wouldn’t expect a trend change in this one. The under here looks attackable and makes for a solid bet tonight.
Bonus: Colorado Avalanche Money line at Vegas Golden Knights -104 (FanDuel)
The Avalanche returned to action after a long layoff recently, and like most teams in their position, the results weren’t great as they were shutout by Marc Andre-Fleury. Goal-scoring issues aside, the Avalanche still played well — and played well enough to win — which is a good sign given how good a team Vegas is. The Golden Knights have been riding hot goaltending of late and are without their best defenseman in Shea Theodore as well. Colorado has dominated this series the last two years and seems ripe for a quick bounce back here.
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