NBA Betting Picks and Prediction: Wednesday

The press is swarming around LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers like buzzards. They’re on a three-game losing skid without Anthony Davis, and they just fell to the Washington Wizards in overtime. They’ll face an even tougher opponent tonight: The Utah Jazz. They are underdogs on the NBA betting picks market too, and by a whopping nine points.

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NBA Betting Picks, Odds and Prediction | Lakers vs. Jazz

Lakers vs. Jazz Game Info

Los Angeles Lakers (22-10) at Utah Jazz (25-6)
Date: Wednesday, Feb. 24, 2021
Start Time: 10 p.m. EST
Venue: Vivint Arena — Salt Lake City, Utah
Coverage: ESPN

The Lakers may be on the down and out, but the Jazz are trending up. They are an impressive 9-1 over their last 10, with their one loss coming to the Los Angeles Clippers. They have point guard Mike Conley back in the lineup too, and they have looked like the class of the Western Conference.

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Lakers vs. Jazz Against the Spread Trends and Prediction

The Jazz haven’t just been the NBA’s best team, they’ve also been the NBA’s best team against the spread. Their 23-8 record against the spread gives them a cover percentage almost 10% greater than the next-best Phoenix Suns. In contrast, the Lakers’ 14-18 record against the spread ranks eighth worst. While they have won every game in which they’ve been listed as underdogs, that’s based on a sample size of one. Meanwhile, the Jazz are 12-3 against the spread as home favorites.

I calculate a spread for each game using a combination of pace and efficiency data, which I then adjust for rest and recent performance, and it disagrees with the trends. Utah plays at a relatively slow place (101.8 possessions per game), which may make it difficult for them to cover the league’s most efficient defense. The predicted spread (-5.1) points to considerable value on the Lakers, but I would take it with a grain of salt given the state of the Lakers’ roster.

Ultimately, I have to side against my model and play the trends.

Lakers vs. Jazz Over/Under Trends and Prediction

If you’re hoping to watch for a high-scoring game, you’ll probably be disappointed by the final tally in this one. The Lakers have the second-worst over percentage (37.5%) in the NBA, and the Jazz (46.7%) aren’t far behind.

I also use my model to predict the final total, and it suggests a tally of around 221 points — slightly above the posted totals. Even though the model weighs defensive efficiency data, a metric in which these teams rank first and second, the model projects both teams to record enough possessions to cash the over.

Again, the model may overestimate Los Angeles’ efficiency because it uses season-long metrics, so I’d err with the under tonight.

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Lakers vs. Jazz NBA Betting Against the Spread Picks + Odds Shopping

With the Lakers as heavy underdogs for this one, betting against them won’t come with as much value as it had in their prior three games. Should you expect them to cover, you can get them as nine-point underdogs at SugarHouse for the best price. If you expect the Jazz to cover, head over to BetMGM to get the best total — or check out FanDuel Sportsbook if you don’t mind burning a half-point for the best juice. These lines may move as the night goes on, so make sure to check for any changes at OddsShopper.

Lakers vs. Jazz NBA Betting Over/Under Picks + Odds Shopping

With a total set between 218.5 and 219, sportsbooks expect to see a relatively low-scoring game. If you want to side with the trends and play the under, head to FanDuel Sportsbook for the highest total — or check out BetMGM or PointsBet for better juice against a lower one. Should you expect to see lots of points tonight, William Hill has the lowest available total at the best juice. Again, you can keep track of any line movement as tip-off approaches directly through OddsShopper.

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Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at OddsShopper/Stokastic specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you trust his columns will be stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar during their seasons. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University.