In another whirlwind of a week with COVID designations and related postponements, we have already arrived to Thursday. A three-game NBA slate is headlined by a potential NBA Finals preview matchup between the reigning champion Lakers and the second-place Bucks. As we look over to the OddsShopper tool to help narrow our NBA betting picks among player props, we’ll combine consideration of player stats, rotations and team trends with the matchups provided to aid our best effort in discovering weaknesses in the NBA betting odds and lines for Thursday.
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NBA Betting Picks: NBA Odds & Player Props | Jan. 21
NBA Pick: G Donte DiVincenzo, OVER 2.5 Assists
+144, BetMGM
What was “supposed to be” the NBA Finals matchup last season is now inclusive of some upgrades for 2021. With some newly gained talents on both sides, the Lakers and Bucks head into their first meeting since prior to the pandemic pause. One familiar face, however, is Donte DiVincenzo, who has become that much more memorable now that he’s worked his way into the starting lineup for Milwaukee at shooting guard. Seeing the assist player prop for DiVincenzo at just 2.5 on +144 betting odds, I’m eager to pry further into our chances here.
Garnering 25.6 minutes per game, mostly with the starting roster, DiVincenzo is seeing the most playing time in the third year of his career, along with career highs in other categories. DiVincenzo is averaging 2.5 assists per game this season and had as many as nine in one performance. With a modest 12% assist rate, DiVincenzo is the fourth-most assisting member of Milwaukee behind Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, and Khris Middleton.
The Lakers surrender an average of 4.6 assists per game to the shooting guard position. That is no reason to solely hang our hats on this wager, but it helps in supplementing a forgiving player prop line for DiVincenzo’s assists. Getting plus-money odds as rewarding as +144 isn’t typically going to come equipped with a barrel of loaded reasoning, yet this likelihood is substantial enough to earn your wagering interests.
With the significance of DiVincenzo joining the active Bucks starters, along with playing his most minutes to date (and more than 25), just three assists is a fantastic value on such a short array of options for Thursday.
NBA Pick: F Kyle Kuzma, OVER 5.5 Rebounds
+125, SugarHouse & DraftKings SportsBook
Last season at this time, it was a surprise to many that Kuzma had not been traded away from the Purple and Gold. Now he has a fancy ring and a contract extension with the Lakers. But another boost for Kuzma is his rebound number, which he has boosted by a full board since last year. He has a favorable +125 odds on six or more rebounds, and as reasonable as this total may seem is recent production is that much more encouraging.
Kuzma has been raking up the boards as of late, making the excess of 5.5 rebounds here seem a bit too good to be true. While he’s already matching tonight’s line on average, Kuzma is hauling in a whopping 10 rebounds per game over his past four outings and as many as 13 in one game. Running a vast majority of his playing time alongside starters LeBron James and Anthony Davis, Kuzma is rebounding just over a 10% rate and logging 24.8 minutes per game (down less than quarter of a minute from last season).
An old saying I tend to gravitate toward when applicable is “once is a fluke, twice a coincidence, and third time’s a trend.” Kuzma has blown the doors off this rebound total in three of his last four games and succeeded in all four. Kuzma’s contract extension may have kicked another gear in for him because it’s clear he has grown into his niche. Getting an added 25% boost on even-money odds, the value offered up is entirely worth consideration among our NBA betting picks.
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