The Power Rankings Tool is finding value in underdogs and an under today for our MLB betting picks. None of these spots will make anybody feel comfortable since it includes betting on the Mets, and an under at Coors Field — although there is reason to think these bets make sense. The three MLB picks below have the best ROI projection in Awesemo’s expert model.
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MLB Expert Betting Picks & ROI Predictions | August 17
New York Mets (+142) at San Francisco Giants — 11.8% ROI
After injuries to Jacob deGrom and Francisco Lindor, the Mets have fallen down the standings. At the time, the Giants are shockingly holding the best record in baseball. This is starting to make the Giants a bit overvalued in the betting market. San Francisco is the rightful favorite in this game, but the line is a bit too wide for a pitching matchup between Logan Webb and Marcus Stroman. Both are quality starting pitchers and the Giants are at home, so the Power Rankings Tool has the fair line set at close to 50/50 with a slight lean towards the Giants. The model has the fair line as Mets +117.
Chicago Cubs (+145) at Cincinnati Reds — 17.9% ROI
This is a bet against Vladimir Gutierrez more than anything. As bad as the Cubs are post-trade deadline, there is no matchup where Gutierrez should start as a large favorite. Even though he has a 3.95 ERA this season, it is mostly luck based. He has a .259 BABIP and an 81.5% strand rate, which are numbers sure to regress. For the rest of the season, ZIPS projects Gutierrez to have a 5.74 ERA, and Steamer projects him for a 5.24 ERA the rest of the way. This is a good spot to fade him, as the regression should start to set in.
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This is one of the best projected unders of the season in Awesemo’s model. The game is at Coors Field, which is never a comfortable under, but the total is massive. The Power Rankings Tool projects the fair total at about 10.5 runs. German Marquez has managed a 3.05 ERA at home this season, and the Rockies’ offense is dead last in baseball with an 80 wRC+.
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