The pitcher advanced statistics evolution has changed MLB more so than any other trends the last few years. Pitchers are now evaluated by spin rate and how much a slider or curveball drops over average, and they are focusing on throwing myriads of breaking balls to increase whiff rate. The following are some of the best at that, and are therefore among the top MLB betting picks for Cy Young in 2021.
MLB Odds + Betting Picks: AL & NL Cy Young Futures
American League Favorite: Shane Bieber +400
Bieber is absolutely amazing at throwing a baseball. No one is better than Bieber at striking out hitters, as he had a 41.1% strikeout rate last season. His predictive statistics were also off the charts, with xwOBA allowed of .246 and xERA of 2.54. He was comfortable ahead in those categories of the other betting favorites priced around him.
American League Sleeper: Kenta Maeda +2000
Maeda is not a sexy name. He does not overpower batters but instead uses elite control and tons of breaking pitchers to get hitters. Sexy or not, the results have been nothing short of spectacular. Strikeout percentage of 32.3 and walk rate of 4.0 would be impressive even without an xERA of 2.73. This was all backed up by the fact that he allowed only a 24.7% hard-hit rate and a launch angle that induced a ton of ground balls. Limiting runs and striking people out is a nice recipe for big counting numbers, and counting numbers win Cy Youngs.
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National League Favorite: Jacob deGrom +425
DeGrom ages like fine wine, if the wine gained a few mph on the fastball every year. His stats are backed up by a robust 38.8% strikeout rate and xERA of 2.70. He does give up more home runs than one would like, with an xSLG of .330, but that comes at the expense of throwing so many pitches around the plate. Either way, do not worry about solo shots limiting his upside. The increased strikeouts are far more valuable than a few more home runs.
National League Sleeper: Brandon Woodruff +2500
Woodruff is also getting better with age. He has improved his strikeout rate every year he has been in the majors. He has also increased his command, which has been a problem in the past. Boasting a 31.1% strikeout rate and some dazzling expected statistics of .261 xwOBA and 2.86 xERA last season, he would not shock anyone if he improved on these numbers this year. A price of +2500 frankly seems like incredible value on a pitcher with his talent and overpowering repertoire of pitches.
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