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Introducing the Awesemo MLB Betting Tools

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MLB DFS Picks on Deeper Dive & Live Before Lock. DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball advice for Tuesday 8/31 w/ Shohei Ohtani.

Sports betting has started to explode across the country as more and more states pass legislation that makes sports betting legal, and easier than ever to access. With the landscape changing so quickly sites are offering deals to attract new users. These offers can end up netting new users hundreds, if not thousands, of dollars quickly! In order to take advantage of this opportunity we are introducing several new sports betting tools.

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MLB Game Picks

Our primary tool is our MLB game picks, which show the expected win probability (xWin) for each game of the day. We compare our xWin to the lines at the sportsbooks to give you an expected Return on Investment (xROI). Currently the lines from the sportsbooks are from a single book but we will soon be combining our xWin with our very powerful OddsShopper tool which helps you find the best odds offered from every sportsbook to help you find the optimal book to place the optimal bet!

Not only do we cover money line bets we cover bets on game totals as well so you can bet if a game is going to go over or under a point total suggested by the sportsbook. Here we again give you our expected total for the game and compare that to the totals at the sportsbook to tell you what your expected ROI is for placing this bet!

What makes our xROI’s so powerful is they are powered by the same type of algorithm’s that have won Alex Baker, Awesemo himself, millions of dollars in DFS as well as countless subscribers first place finishes in DFS contests.

Power Ratings

We cannot give away all of the secret sauce behind our game projections, but you can find one of the biggest factors in another one of our new features, which is our team power ratings. Here we rate the skill level of every player on the team in terms of hitting, pitching, speed, and fielding and project playing time over the rest of the season. We scale each of these skills from 1-100 where 50 is meant to be the skill of an average team and over 80 is a top end playoff team. We then weight these skills in terms of their predictive power and importance to winning to give an overall team rating.

These team ratings give us the ability to determine how often a team will win against an average opponent. For example, the Dodgers have an overall rating of 90 which translates into an expected record of about 97-65 over the course of a full MLB season against a league average schedule.

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With each individual game we do the same process except the playing time allocations are adjusted to represent those of this particular game. For example, instead of Jacob DeGrom being weighted at 30% of the innings pitched for the Mets over the course of the season in the power ratings he may be projected for 70% of the innings pitched for this specific game.

While these true skill levels for players are the backbone of the projections, we also include many other factors such as weather, bullpen usage, pitcher/batter handedness, projected lineups, and many other factors to provide the most accurate projection possible to help you win money. When combined with OddsShopper to get the best lines you will be in a great spot to be a profitable bettor!

The best thing about us providing you access to our power ratings is you can easily make adjustments to our xROI on your own! If you see a line that says the Red Sox offer a strong xROI and you see they are seventh in our power ratings but you do not think they are better than the Cubs, who are 10th, you could factor that into your decision if you want to bet the Red Sox or the Cubs.

The power ratings are also very valuable in helping you place future bets. If a team is ranked high in our ratings but their probability to make the playoffs is low they could offer good value as long as they have not dug themselves too big of a hole in the standings. Watch for articles and videos breaking down how we see the futures market based on what our power ratings are saying!

MLB Player Props

The third tool that we are offering is our MLB player props tool for both strikeouts and home runs. This tool directly uses our proprietary MLB projection model that has been used for years to help DFS subscribers and Alex Baker, Awesemo himself, win millions of dollars!

Strikeout Prop Tool

A strikeout prop is where the sportsbook will ask the question if a pitcher is going to strike out more or less hitter than a specified number and they then offer a line for both sides of that number. In order to determine if a strikeout prop bet is good or not we take the projected strikeouts for each pitcher in our MLB projection model and assign them a probability of going over or under the total offered by the sportsbooks.

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We compare these probabilities to the best odds that a sportsbook is offering. These odds come directly from our very own OddsShopper tool which is constantly scouring multiple sportsbooks for their current odds. With the best odds provided we provide you with the expected ROI (xROI) for both the over and the under side of the bet. If you want to see what sportsbook is offering the odds shown click the get odds button. You will be taken to OddsShopper where you can find the sportsbook and place the bet!

To determine the strikeout totals our model uses key factors like the skill level of the pitcher as well as the hitters in the opposing lineup, handedness of the hitters and pitcher, how deep the pitcher is going into games, as well as many other key variables.

Given the accuracy of our model strikeout props are one of the best bets that the sportsbooks offer since you can bet either the over or the under side and the sportsbooks do not charge a significant amount of rake on these bets. If you are looking for a way to steadily grow your sports betting bankroll strikeout props are for you!

HR Prop Tool

Our final tool is the home run prop tool. A home run prop is where the sportsbook will ask if a player will hit a home run or not and you can often choose either side of the bet, although some books will only allow you to bet the “Yes” side. In this tool we give you the expected probability that a player will hit a home run (xWin) that game and compare it to the best odds currently available at all sportsbooks, in the same manner as described above in the strikeout prop tool.

In general, sportsbooks shade their rake to the “Yes” side which over the long run will make “No” the player will not homer a better bet and will slowly increase your bankroll despite these bets not paying out nearly as much for each win. However, each day there are very strong “Yes” bets that are available from a specific sportsbook if you are shopping odds with our tools due to various factors like a new place in the lineup.

The underlying data for if a player will hit a homer or not comes directly from our proprietary MLB model just like in the strikeouts props tool. There are a ton of attributes that go into this calculation such as the underlying skill level of the hitter, the pitcher, the ballpark, the weather and a lot more! Home run props can be a lot of fun and offer both high upside and consistent returns. Home run props do not offer nearly as good of odds as many other bets and can often have very poor xROI’s. But by using our tool we will point you in the right direction of the best bets each day!


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Looking for more MLB DFS picks content? We have loads of daily fantasy baseball articles, data, DraftKings and FanDuel cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo MLB DFS home page.

Steve has been a life long sports fan supporting the Cubs, Colts, and Bulls. Growing up he would spend countless hours listening to the Cubs on the radio and perfecting Andre Dawson's swing or Michael Jordan's fade away. He has played fantasy sports since the 90's and has won a wide variety of season long leagues and online contests in NBA, MLB, and NFL. He started playing DFS in 2014 which took his fantasy sports obsession to another level. During the 2018 NFL season he won the World Fantasy Football Championship as well as a Milly Maker and several $100k prize payouts. He has also had multiple six figure wins and live finals appearances in NBA, MLB, and MMA. You can contact him on Twitter at @SteveBuzzard

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