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Bet Cardinals ML (+143) vs. Reds Tonight: Expert MLB Team & Player Props Bets | Friday, July 23, 2021




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It is an extremely hot and humid summer night across the league, which should make for a lot of excitement tonight. The intense weather can create some very hitter-friendly environments and help drive offense and run totals, which is something we can exploit with THESE MLB betting predictions. Below I have examined the MLB Vegas odds and outlined three free expert MLB picks and prop bets today.

Expert MLB Picks, Player Prop Predictions & Vegas Odds

Cardinals vs. Reds: St. Louis Moneyline (+143, William Hill)

Although the pitching matchup certainly favors the Reds, the betting line is weighted too heavily towards Cincinnati tonight. Wade LeBlanc does not give up a high exit velocity or a lot of hard hits. However, he is not a strikeout pitcher and relies on superior control and weak contact. Tyler Mahle is the opposite; he has plenty of strikeouts but elevated walks and almost the same barrel rate as LeBlanc. The offense in this spot favors the Cardinals slightly, and they also have a superior bullpen. Awesemo’s model projects that the Cardinals win this game 47% of the time, much better than the Vegas odds indicate.

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Alex Cobb vs. Twins: Over 4.5 strikeouts (-118, SugarHouse)

Alex Cobb has been a great source of strikeouts this year for the Angels. Although the Twins do not strike out a lot, their offense took a huge hit with the exit of their best hitter, Nelson Cruz. The current lineup has five hitters projecting to strike out over 25%, which makes this a must bet at almost even odds. Cobb has a 26% strikeout rate and has gone deep in games this year due to allowing only a 1.5-degree launch angle and 38% hard hits. The stats indicate Cobb is in for a great night, which is why Awesemo’s Player Props model loves this spot tonight.

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Zach Plesac vs. Rays: Under 5.5 strikeouts (-142, FanDuel)

Zach Plesac is not a strikeout artist at this point in his career. In fact, he is just not a great pitcher any longer. With only 16.7% strikeouts and 40% hard hits as well as 10.3% barrels allowed, Plesac seems in for a short outing tonight against the Rays and their newly acquired slugger, Nelson Cruz. The Rays lineup has a ton of power as well as great on-base skills. A strikeout prop of 5.5 is very optimistic, and even at -142 odds, this is a bet that Awesemo’s model projects would win over 70% of the time, making it extremely safe.

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