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Bet OVER 8.5 Runs for Indians vs. Astros Tonight: Expert MLB Team & Player Props Bets | Wednesday, July 21, 2021




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Today there are only smaller eight games to go over, but there are still some very juicy spots for MLB betting today. Below I have outlined some of the MLB Vegas odds and free expert MLB picks and prop bets today.

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Expert MLB Picks, Player Prop Predictions & Vegas Odds

Indians vs. Astros Over 8.5 Runs (-110, FanDuel)

Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model has loved this spot every game of this series, and today is no different. Per Awesemo’s calculations, the total here should be closer to 9.5 runs, and today Vegas is one full run under. Eli Morgan should get absolutely shellacked by the Astros, as he has given up 42% hard hits and a .547 xSLG while striking out only 23%. The Astros may score nine runs all on their own tonight. Lance McCullers Jr. has limited power all year but is still giving up 44% hard hits and walking 12% of batters, which should lead to some short outings and a lot of earned runs at some point soon.

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Twins vs. White Sox: Minnesota Moneyline (+143, William Hill)

Michael Pineda is bad and Dylan Cease is good at throwing baseballs, but this betting line is just too lopsided in the White Sox’s favor. Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model says this is a spot where the game is closer to a pick-em, and some books disagree, making this a juicy spot to bet at plus odds. Pineda has struggled with power all year, but the Twins lineup is extremely strong backing him up, even with Byron Buxton absent. Trevor Larnach has filled in admirably, providing power in the middle of the Twins lineup. Cease struggles with walks and the Twins do not strike out much as a team, making this a tough matchup for Cease.

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Jordan Lyles vs. Tigers: Over 3.5 strikeouts (-155, SugarHouse)

Jordan Lyles and strikeouts are not two words one would think go well in the same sentence. However, 3.5 strikeouts in this day and age against the free-swinging Tigers is just insulting. Lyles has quietly pitched at least six innings in four of five starts and has gotten his hard hits under control to last longer in games. Although -155 represents short odds, this is a bet that Awesemo’s model predicts would win 71% of the time. That is quite a bit higher than the odds from the sportsbooks, which is why Awesemo’s Player Props model loves this spot tonight.

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