There are fewer great spots to choose from today, so this column will concentrate more on player props than team bets. Below I have examined the MLB team and player Vegas odds and outlined four free expert MLB picks in Awesemo’s MLB betting guide.
Expert MLB Player Prop Picks, Predictions & Vegas Odds
Indians vs. Blue Jays: Cleveland Moneyline (+190, William Hill)
This is another one of those longshot bets where Vegas disagrees with Awesemo’s model. J.C. Mejia takes the mound in Toronto and will face an onslaught of right-handed power hitters. Mejia does not have awe-inspiring stats, but he has limited power to the tune of only 7.4% barrels allowed this season. On the other side Steven Matz has flashed brilliance this season, but unlike Mejia, he gives up lots of power. Cleveland still has a potent lineup headlined by Franmil Reyes and Jose Ramirez. Awesemo’s model predicts that the Indians will take this game 40% of the time, and +190 odds imply about 35% win probability. Thus by playing this spot, bettors gain a significant edge in the long run.
Carlos Carrasco Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+142, FanDuel)
The Mets finally got Carlos Carrasco back, and he was quite impressive in his debut while only throwing 58 pitches against the Reds. He should be in line for around 75 pitches today against the strikeout-happy Marlins. Carrasco has always been a strikeout pitcher, and in his first starts he showed decent 93 mph velocity on his fastball and accumulated 12% swinging strikes. Facing the depleted Marlins lineup, Awesemo’s model projects Carrasco to hit the magic number of six strikeouts 53% of the time, which should make this bet about a coin flip. At heavy plus odds, this is a +EV spot in the long term.
C.J. Cron to Hit a Home Run (+425, BetMGM)
It is always a good bet to look for home runs at Coors Field, and today C.J. Cron faces Alec Mills and his 16% strikeout rate. Cron has an xSLG of .455 and a 15-degree average launch angle perfect for home runs. His problem with swings and misses is mitigated by the fact that Mills has barely any strikeout stuff at this point in his career. While Mills has not allowed much power this season, allowing contact at Coors is always a recipe for disaster, and +425 odds on Cron to go deep make for a great betting spot.
Zach Thompson Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+112, William Hill)
On the other side of the mound, Zach Thompson is taking the hill against the Mets in what is once again a great spot to look for the over on strikeouts. Marlins Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the league, allowing pitchers to stay in the game longer than average. In fact, Thompson has never gone less than five innings at home this season, and he averages more than a strikeout an inning. The Mets lineup is not out yet as of the writing of this article, but they are about middle of the league in strikeouts. This projects as a pitchers’ duel, and bettors should take advantage of this spot.
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