Thursday’s loaded MLB schedule leaves no shortage of action on the diamond throughout the day. There are a few profitable spots for MLB betting today, and I have outlined some of the MLB Vegas odds and free expert MLB picks and prop bets for today, July 29.
Expert MLB Picks, Predictions & Vegas Odds
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox -1.5 (-118, SugarHouse)
This is one of the earlier games of the day, and the White Sox are heavy favorites with the massive mismatch on the mound between starting pitchers.
Carlos Rodon gets the ball for Chicago, and he has been fantastic this season with a 2.24 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Kansas City is slightly below average in wOBA against left-handed pitching (.312). In addition, Rodon has been great away from home with a 5-1 record and 1.90 ERA in nine road starts.
The big takeaway on this game is the total, which dropped from 10 to 9.5, with both team totals dropping 0.3 runs for each. That has much more to do with the Royals’ offense against Rodon rather than the White Sox faltering against Carlos Hernandez and the bullpen. Because of that, Chicago will get a comfortable win tonight.
Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers – Over 9.5 Runs (-115, DraftKings)
Make sure to grab this 9.5-run total on DraftKings because all of the other sportsbooks have it listed at 10. This is a nice advantage should the game end 6-4 or 7-3.
Twelve of Baltimore’s last 17 games against American League opponents have landed over the total. Each team had a slight increase in their respective team total (Baltimore +0.3, Detroit +0.2), and that is usually a good sign of offense on the horizon.
Casey Mize is an up-and-coming pitcher for Detroit, but he has not been going too deep into games, and that will put more innings on the Tigers’ bullpen. At this point, it is clear the team is trying to limit his pitch counts as the season moves along. Baltimore will send Alexander Wells to the mound for his fourth career MLB appearance and only the second start of his career. The Tigers are coming off a game in which they scored 17 runs, and four of their last five games have gone over the total.
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres -1.5 (-118, SugarHouse)
Awesemo’s OddsShopper tool shows that there are a couple of 2.5-run lines out there for this game. That shows that there is a massive mismatch on the horizon. And it makes sense considering the Padres’ 5.1 implied team total is two runs more than the Rockies’ total. This is something rarely seen in baseball, but it a little safer MLB betting pick to take the Padres on the traditional 1.5-run line.
Getting away from Coors Field has not actually helped Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland this season. He is 0-3 with a 5.10 ERA away from the Rocky Mountains, compared to a slightly better 1-2 record and 4.56 ERA at home. San Diego has not been dominant against lefty pitching this season, but it does have plenty of guys on the roster with a great history against Freeland.
Joe Musgrove gets a beautiful matchup against a Colorado team that ranks dead last in wRC+ (71) and third worst in wOBA (.298) against right-handed pitching. His 2.83 ERA at home (and 70 strikeouts in 57.1 innings) is certainly worth putting more stock into tonight. In two starts against the Rockies this season, Musgrove owns a 0.79 ERA and punched out 17 batters in a span of 11 innings.
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
Check out Stokastic's Best Bets home page for more sports betting picks and predictions.
