Great hitting weather remains for most of the country, which is wreaking havoc on pitching staffs. After looking at all of the MLB Vegas odds and betting lines today, below are the free expert MLB picks, player props and predictions for Wednesday, June 30.
Expert MLB Picks, Player Prop Predictions & Vegas Odds
San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds Moneyline: -180 (FanDuel)
Usually paying so much juice on a bet is not advisable, but this actually seems like bettors are getting a break on the odds here. Something in the range of -250 seems more advisable, as the Padres are going with Joe Musgrove on the mound and are facing a gas can in Vladimir Gutierrez. The fantastic San Diego lineup had a field day in Cincinnati yesterday and were actually very unlucky to only score five runs. They barreled up the ball all night and had the bases loaded several times, resulting in a whopping 28 men left on base. That is a stat that is hard to believe, but it is unlikely to continue today. Musgrove has found new life away from the Pirates, like so many pitchers have done. Throwing more breaking pitches than ever, he has a robust 30% strikeout rate and is only allowing 37% hard hits. Bet on the Padres with confidence, even at elevated odds tonight.
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Steven Matz Over 4.5 strikeouts: -121 (DraftKings)
Steven Matz is going to be on a pitch count, but seeing as he threw a 60-pitch bullpen session, it seems like around 80 pitches is possible. The Mariners strike out at a bottom-three rate this season, and Robbie Ray just had them for 10 strikeouts last night. Only requiring half of that to cash, the bet seems extremely likely tonight even with a reduced pitch count. For the season, Matz is only allowing 40% hard hits and an xSLG of .378, which should reduce the number of pitches per at-bat. With a 25% strikeout rate and only a 7% walk rate, the length required should be a non-issue to accumulate the five strikeouts necessary tonight.
Ramon Laureano to Hit a Home Run: +620 (DraftKings)
Targeting a home run in California tonight seems dubious at first glance with all the hot and humid weather on the East Coast. However, that is why sportsbooks are offering great odds and this bet does not need to be won too many times to be profitable. Kelly Allard is giving up an xSLG of .428 this season and is striking batters out at a below average 23.4% rate. He is also allowing 7.5% barrels and a launch angle of 15.7, which is perfect for line drives and fly balls. Ramon Laureano is having a fantastic year, posting a .515 xSLG and 42.7% hard hits. That leads to many chances of the ball going out of the park.
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