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Bet Giants ML (+130) vs. Dodgers Tonight: Expert MLB Picks, Odds & Team Prop Bets | Tuesday, July 20, 2021




MLB DFS Picks, top stacks and pitchers for Yahoo, DraftKings & FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups, including the Giants | Thursday, 8/12

After a crazy high-scoring slate of games and one rain postponement where no actual rain fell last night, hopefully tonight is a return to normalcy in our MLB betting advice on this 13-game slate. Below I have found some of the best MLB Vegas odds and free expert MLB picks today, Tuesday, July 20.

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Expert MLB Picks, Predictions & Vegas Odds

Mets vs. Reds: New York Moneyline (+140, William Hill)

Although it appears that the Mets pitcher projects much worse than Wade Miley for the Reds, underlying statistics =indicate the matchup is much closer than it appears. Miley has limited hard contact all year but is only striking out 19.2% of batters. During the dog days of summer, in his home park, limiting hard contact is not going to be enough to limit run production for the opposite team. There were quite a few 90 mph exit velocity home runs last night, so the ball does not need to be hit particularly hard to go out. Robert Stock gives up many more hard hits but also has legitimate strikeout stuff. Sporting a hard fastball that is averaging 96 mph, Stock’s main issue has been walks. As long as he can limit those, Mets should be able to scratch out another win as severe underdogs.

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Giants vs. Dodgers: San Francisco Moneyline (+130, FanDuel)

Giants have been a surprise team all year. Where the expectation was that the Dodgers and Padres would run away with the National League West, the Giants have come out of nowhere to lead both teams. Tonight Alex Wood is taking the mound and the Dodgers have not announced their starter as of yet. Wood has had a fantastic bounce-back season with 25% strikeouts and only allowing a .362 xSLG and .297 xwOBA. Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model says this is a spot where the Giants should be favored, and books disagree, making this a juicy spot to bet at plus odds.

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Indians vs. Astros Over 9 Runs (-105, PointsBet)

According to Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model, the total here should be closer to 9.8 runs, and underlying statistics agree. Triston McKenzie is an interesting prospect that had a great start in his return from the injured list. However, his main prowess is strikeouts, and the Astros strike out less than any other team in the league while boasting great on-base statistics and power. McKenzie walks 19% of batters and gives up 52% hard hits, and that will not do against a team like the Astros. Luis Garcia has had a great season, but he is also giving up a launch angle of 18.2 degrees, perfect for home runs and extra-base hits. Couple that with 40% hard hits given up, and there is a recipe for a lot of runs in Houston tonight.

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