Sports are back in full swing, with an almost overwhelming amount of options to bet on. Here are a few of my strongest spots on the board for Tuesday’s betting card, along with analysis on the play and the best place to take the bet, courtesy of the Awesemo OddsShopper tool. Let’s get into some MLB betting picks and NBA betting picks for today’s action.
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MLB Betting Picks
Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Indians: Chicago First Five +0.5 (-140)
Jon Lester is off to a spectacular start this season, allowing just one run in 11 innings, including a five-inning no-hitter against the Reds. He’s only allowed six total baserunners in his two starts and now faces a Cleveland offense that’s been in the bottom five hitting against left-handed pitchers and bottom three in runs per game (3.47).
Adam Plutko has made two appearances but just one start this season — surrendering two runs to the White Sox. Plutko’s resume tells a much different story, though, with a 4.99 career ERA. He finished 2019 on thin ice as well, posting a 6.49 ERA in September. The Cubs are a top-10 offense, averaging five runs per game, and have been even better on the road, scoring 6.2 runs per game. Chicago is 9-3-1 on the first-five moneyline this season, and getting the half run makes that record 10-3.
I wasn’t expecting to get the +0.5 on the Cubs’ side of this matchup, so I laid the juice to get it. Cleveland is allowing the fewest runs in baseball as a team, so this is just an extra precaution to make the bet safer. If you don’t have this option, I still love the Cubs on the first-five moneyline (-110). The Cubs have the worst bullpen in baseball, so that explains why we aren’t going after the full-game moneyline here. BetMGM is offering the most competitive Cubs moneyline at -106, but everything on the board is -110 or better. I’d just scramble through to books to see if you can get the half run if you want it, but the first-five moneyline is a fine play.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies: First Five Under 6.5 (-115)
We saw 20 runs at Coors Field on Monday night, and 15 of them came in the first five innings. However, it was actually the first time in seven games at Coors this season that the first-five over hit, and we get a massive starting pitching upgrade for this matchup.
Zac Gallen has allowed five runs in 16 innings through his first three starts, all coming against impressive competition — the Astros, Dodgers and Padres all rank in the top six in runs per game. Gallen faced the Rockies twice as a rookie last season, allowing just three runs in 10 innings, two of those runs in four innings at Coors. I like that Gallen is a high-strikeout pitcher (21 in 16 IP), so fewer balls in play gives less of a chance of a ball flying out of the park.
Kyle Freeland has turned it around so far in 2020, allowing just five runs himself in 18.2 innings. He’s pitched 12.2 inning at home, and allowed just three runs in those outings combined. The Diamondbacks have been a bottom-five team hitting lefties this season, and rank just 25th in runs per game. Despite the outburst at Coors on Monday, Arizona is still averaging just 3.7 runs per game on the road.
The Rockies are 13-3 to the first-five under this season, and that record was 6-0 at home until Monday. The Diamondbacks are 6-3-1 to the first-five under on the road this season. BetMGM has the best price on the total for the full game, but the total sits at 11. DraftKings is the only book showing an 11.5, so that’s where I’d look for action on the best price on the first five.
NBA Betting Picks
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Washington Wizards: Under 227 (-109)
This one was around 231 earlier in the day, and I was able to lock in under 230.5 when all the Milwaukee news hit. But the good news is I think this under is totally playable all the way down to 225.5 so still plenty of room.
The Bucks will be withoutKhris Middleton, Eric Bledsoe, Donte DiVincenzo and Wesley Matthews in this game, andGiannis Antetokounmpo is still questionable as I submit this article. I’d be shocked if Giannis played, and if he does, it’ll be extremely limited, as will be the case for the rest of the veterans on the roster.
The Bucks they didn’t actually try on Monday and scored 106 points with 25 minutes from Middleton and 30 from Bledsoe. The Raptors have had one of the top defenses in the bubble but sat Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet and Serge Ibaka and limited the rest of their key players, so I wouldn’t read too much into it. Milwaukee also scored 116 points against the Nets when they benched the starters and played a similar bench lineup in the second half.
The Wizards haven’t topped 112 points in a bubble game and are averaging just 102 points per game in their last four outings. Washington has stayed under the 227 total in each of the last four games, averaging a total of 216.2 during that span. I just don’t see where the points will come from in this one.
The books have the same number posted right now, so we can’t steal a half a point like the Rockies game, but DraftKings is offering the best price on the under at the moment. Per usual, use the OddsShopper tool to get the best up to the minute price.
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