MLB Prop Bets & Best Odds Tonight: Ryan Mountcastle HR & Rangers ML

We are back at it with a small six-game slate for MLB betting today. This article is going to take a look at the top three MLB player and team prop bets, the best odds, picks and predictions for tonight, Monday, June 21.

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MLB Prop Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions | June 21

Texas Rangers Over Oakland Athletics: +115 (BetMGM)

Total Under 8: -104 (SugarHouse)

The Rangers are underdogs today against the Athletics in a matchup where they should be favored. Kyle Gibson has more than held his own this year, only giving up 37.8% hard hits and an xwOBA of .280. On the other side, Frankie Montas takes the mound for the Athletics. Montas has not fared well so far this year, giving up 45% hard contact and .453 xSLG. Both of these pitchers strike out less than league average of opposing batters, but they also issue very few walks. The Rangers’ lineup has struggled against soft-tossing veterans this year, but Montas is the opposite, as his most effective pitch is his fastball. Rangers should be able to take this one quite easily and can be had at plus odds.

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Cincinnati Reds Over Minnesota Twins: -111 (William Hill)

This is as simple as picking the better pitching option in a coin-flip spread. J.A. Happ offers an amazing amount of power and has really struggled to go deep in the game. His expected stats of xSLG .511 and only 16.5% strikeouts suggest this trend will continue. Meanwhile, Tyler Mahle has reinvented his arsenal and is having his best year in the majors. Mahle is sporting an almost 30% strikeout rate and only giving up 32% hard hits and 6% barrels. The Reds also have a great lineup with two MVP candidates and WAR leaders in Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos headlining a deep squad. This seems like a no brainer bet when looking at all of the factors outlined above.

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Ryan Mountcastle to Hit Home Run: +350 (SugarHouse)

Ryan Mountcastle will face Jake Odorizzi in a game projected to go over 10.5 runs today. While most of the scoring is expected to come from the Astros side, do not forget that Odorizzi stopped being a good major league pitcher five years ago. He is running quite hot this year, only giving up 7% barrels; however, this type of luck can not continue. His launch angle given up is 15.4 degrees, and he is also giving up 45.1% hard contact. These two metrics combined add up to the fact that Odorizzi is primed to blow up in a big way very soon. Mountcastle has come alive as the weather has become increasingly hot and humid in Baltimore. At first pitch, 80-degree weather and 80% humidity is expected. Those are great conditions for the long ball today, and Mountcastle should greatly benefit in this spot.

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