The first weekend of Major League Baseball is upon us, with Saturday cemented a full day of action across the league. Provided five early games, five games in the afternoon, and five games for the early evening, we’ll have a pick of the litter to focus on the best matchups aided by the tools of Awesemo and OddsShopper. For the first day thus far it appears we may be without a weather related postponement as well, which means we can likely remove limitations when utilizing our expert MLB picks and predictions to secure the best MLB bets today. We’ll begin by taking a look at the New York Mets and Chris Bassitt in Game 3 of their four game series with the Washington Nationals. Following we’ll shift to the West where Joe Musgrove makes his first start of the season for the visiting San Diego Padres against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Each day, this article will seek out the best expert MLB bets today based on the potentially most profitable, according to xROI%. Utilizing the groundbreaking tools at OddsShopper to identify outstanding value with optimal returns on investment, parsing and prioritizing daily wagers is easy to filter, sort and bet. OddsShopper not only provides up-to-date odds featured across all major stateside sportsbooks but also the creation of a Prop Party Parlay, combining your choice of top picks to maximize returns.
Best MLB Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals UNDER 9.5 Total Runs (-110)
New York Mets fans can rejoice in a 2-0 series lead over the Washington Nationals as Chris Bassitt makes his visiting debut on Saturday evening. With first pitch scheduled for 7:05 pm Eastern time, the weather at Nationals Park is forecast for a chilly 53 degrees, 9 mph WNW wind, 17 mph wind gusts and 50% humidity. This includes some mild scattered showers in the surrounding area with potential for delay, but no evident chance of postponement looming. For the Nationals, taking the mound for just his second Major League start is 23-year old Joan Adon, who showed some promise in the Minors.
Taking a closer look at our expert data at Awesemo, we come to find the Mets atop a -155 moneyline and projected a 59% xWin with the Nats a +135 underdog. However, it’s the elevated 9.5 run total which draws attention contrast to a projected 8.4 expected run total. Currently at OddsShopper, it features -110 odds, lending to the projected 7.5% expected return on investment. Bassitt (12-4) enters 2022 coming off a remarkable season for Oakland where he produced a 25% strikeout rate, 0.86 home runs per nine innings, 1.06 WHIP, 6.1% walk rate, .216 average against, and 3.15 earned run average. Washington is due to roll out five right-handed hitters, three switch-hitters, and one lefty against Bassitt. Last season facing right-handed hitters, Bassitt produced similarly to his overall season averages (in fact slightly better), while against left-handed opposition his home run rate rose to 1.28 HR/9 although his WHIP improved to 0.95. The Nationals offense, when facing righty pitchers last season, produced a mediocre 21.4% strikeout rate, 96 wRC+, and .299 BABIP. The Mets bullpen were among the top third of the league in several metrics last season including a 3.90 ERA, 25.8% strikeout rate, and stranding 73.7% of hitters reaching bases.
While the question of Adon’s expertise naturally comes into play, provided a limited resume, what he’s displayed to this point in 5 1/3 innings in the Majors is a 37.5% strikeout rate, 12.5% walk rate, 1.69 HR/9, and a 1.69 WHIP. His production in the Minor Leagues has shown added promise where a bulk of his work came from the A+ level, producing 24.4% strikeout rate, 0.72 HR/9, .231 average against, 1.25 WHIP, and .297 BABIP. The Mets offense when facing right-handed pitchers in 2021 manufactured similar numbers to their opponent’s track record, including a 97 wRC+, 23.6% strikeout rate, and .158 ISO. The wild card may in fact be the Nationals bullpen, at least in our sake against the over, as they were abysmal in 2021 with a 5.08 ERA, 1.45 HR/9, 67.7% left-on-base rate, and looking somewhat identical through two games (5.40 ERA, .300 average against, 20.4% strikeout rate, but no home runs surrendered). Though all factors here considered the need for 10 runs to crest the over is still a large ask with no climatic elements lending much to an offensive edge, at just standard house juice on -110 odds the under at Nationals Park projects among the best MLB bets today.
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San Diego Padres Moneyline (-154) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The San Diego Padres are at an even 1-1 in a four game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks in dome weather at Chase Field, which is unable to currently open the roof due to cable issues. Joe Musgrove draws the assignment for San Diego against Zach Davies, who is facing his former team while making his first start in a Diamondbacks uniform. With the Padres favored at -155 when the line opened the expert projections at Awesemo extend a 60% xWin for San Diego and a 3.6% return on investment, with the game total currently at 9.5 runs. OddsShopper has since seen the Padres moneyline move up to -160 and since back down to -154, indicating some early reverse line movement.
Musgrove (11-9) manufactured some milestones in 2021 including a no-hitter performance he tossed a year ago from yesterday. Musgrove turned in an overall impressive season with a 93.1 mph fastball up from 2020, 27.1% strikeout rate, 1.08 WHIP, .210 average against, and 7.2% walk rate, and 1.09 HR/9. The Diamondbacks are schedule for a mixed hitting order of four lefties, three switch-hitters, and two righties. Musgrove’s left-handed splits in 2021 weren’t a drastic differential with a 26.2% strikeout rate, 1.17 WHIP and .230 average against though a 1.38 HR/9 remains a need for improvement. The Arizona offense facing right-handed pitching was among the bottom of the barrel last season, churning out a 24.7% strikeout rate, .230 batting average, .140 ISO, and 79 wRC+. The Padres bullpen was a noteworthy force throughout 2021 as well, beside a 3.62 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 1.16 HR/9, .228 average against, and 1.24 WHIP.
The right-handed Davies (6-12) starts with his fourth team in the past four seasons following a subpar stay with the Chicago Cubs in 2021; turning in a 17.1% strikeout rate, 1.52 HR/9, 11.2% walk rate, .276 average against, and 1.60 WHIP. Davies will be in line to face five right-handed hitters, three lefties, and one switch-hitter in the Padres hitting order. Facing right-handed opposition Davies managed an 18.7% strikeout rate, 1.65 HR/9, .302 average against, 1.63 WHIP, and 5.09 xFIP. San Diego’s offensive production against right-handed pitching in 2021 produced a 21.7% strikeout rate, .243 batting average, 99 wRC+, and .729 OPS. Like Davies with the Cubs, the Arizona bullpen shared a dreadful 2021 campaign, earning a 5.08 ERA, .272 average against, 1.35 HR/9, 19.1% strikeout rate, and stranding just 66.9% of hitters reaching bases. Considering the favorable projected win rate in tandem with positive projected return on investment, the Padres on -154 odds that may be regressing further estimates as another of Saturday’s best MLB bets today.
More Quick MLB Picks & Predictions Today
- Rangers vs. Blue Jays Under (-110), 5.3% xROI
- Astros vs. Angels Under (-115), 5.1% xROI
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