This will be our last opportunity to look through UFC odds for a while, after tonight’s Fight Night card headlined by Thompson vs. Neal, the UFC goes on break and doesn’t have another card until January 16th. This is the last chance to get UFC bets in for a month, so we’re taking a hard look at the best UFC betting picks for this exciting card.
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UFC Odds + Betting Picks | UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal
UFC Betting Pick: Talia Santos To Win +100
There is only one path to victory in this fight for Gillian Robertson. If she isn’t able to takedown Santos and exert control on the mat, Santos is going to pick her apart while they are upright. Robertson is a very talented grappler but struggles to get fights to the mat at times. She lands 3.25 takedowns per 15 minutes although this is with low accuracy and mostly against lesser competition. Santos looks like the physically stronger of the two fighters by a significant margin, and she has an 83% takedown defense. Even if Robertson gets Santos down, I am not convinced that earning control will come easily. Santos might bounce back up and get to work on the feet because of her strength advantage. Santos is more likely to find success in wrestling than Robertson is standing.
UFC Betting Pick: Rob Font To Win +134
This is the type of bet that I will always make. Marlon Moraes is fun to watch and a former title challenger but it’s clear that he’s limited at this point in his career. Moraes is a low-output fighter, landing 3.43 significant strikes per minute and he slows down further in the later rounds of fights. This means he’s an early finish or bust fighter. Font lands at a much higher clip of 5.11 significant strikes per minute and has better striking defense at a 63% rate compared to 58%. Font can lose to wrestlers but Moraes doesn’t have the cardio to initiate grappling. This is why Moraes only lands 0.64 takedowns per 15 minutes. Even though Moraes is dangerous, the numbers imply that Font wins this fight more often than he loses.
UFC betting Pick: Marlon Vera +2000 To Win By Third Round KO/TKO
The odds are obviously long, but I have a case for thinking this is at least a more likely outcome than the odds suggest. Arguably the Featherweight GOAT, Jose Aldo is still a talented fighter but he is showing signs of wear and tear. His cardio doesn’t hold up at this point in his career, he has looked really good early in recent fights, until he runs out of cardio. This is his downfall after 35 professional fights. Aldo only has two wins in his last seven bouts. In three of those fights he was finished in the third round or later.
I have never bet on Vera and I don’t exactly favor him to win this fight. If he does win, I think he most likely gets it done in the later rounds. Vera has a reputation for starting slow and improving as fights wear on. This has led to Vera winning six of his UFC fights by finish after the first round. I expect Aldo to win the early rounds, forcing Vera to pour on the pressure and look for a finish as the fight wears on. Given how we have seen Aldo tire in recent fights, one of the more likely paths to victory for Vera is a late finish which also plays into how we have seen a handful of recent bouts play out for each of these fighters. This is one of the more interesting UFC bets available on the Thompson vs Neal card.
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