🎲 NHL Betting Picks of the Day: Canadiens Moneyline at Jets | 2/25

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Thursday’s NHL Betting Picks: Canadiens vs. Jets | Feb. 25

Montreal comes into this game off their second straight overtime loss to the Senators, a development that was enough to lead them to fire Claude Julien for the second time in team history. Montreal is still 9-5-4 on the season (so Julien’s firing is a touch perplexing), but they’re just 4-4-3 in their last 10 games and losers of three straight. The Canadiens’ issues of late have come from a power play that isn’t firing — they’re 12th worst in the league — and from goaltenders who can’t stop the puck. While Jake Allen (.932 save percentage) has been solid this year, starter Carey Price has put up a .893 save percentage over 11 starts. Until he picks up his play, the Canadiens will likely struggle unless they get some traction on the power play. This is still a very solid team that is dominating five-on-five — they rank first in expected-goal rate — but they’re having issues with specific portions of the game, which has hampered them in the win column of late.

The Jets are the complete opposite of the Canadiens in a lot of ways. They rank second last in expected goal rate but come into this game with an 11-6-1 record and as winners of three of their last four games. The Jets have received a boost from their netminders, as both Connor Hellebuyck and Laurent Brossoit have save percentages over .915. Winnipeg may not be creating as many scoring chances as Montreal, but they’re burying their chances so far when they get them and are fourth in the league in goals per game (3.4). The Jets second-liners, led by Nikolaj Ehlers (10 goals) and Andrew Copp (12 points), have provided needed depth scoring for a team who was over reliant on their top line in the past. Pierre-Luc Dubois has given them good production already too, with 3 points in three games.

Best Bet: Canadiens Moneyline (-122) at Jets — PointsBet

The Jets are an interesting team, and perhaps we’re reading too much into the stats here, but by all accounts the Canadiens should be heavier favorites here. Montreal dominates them in scoring chances created, and despite the Jets getting better special teams production and goaltending, these two teams sit just 1 point apart in the standings. Montreal started to bury some of its chances in its last game with Ottawa and you have to think that at least some of that confidence carries over to this game, especially against a team in the Jets who allow the eighth-most scoring chances against in the league.

The Canadiens likely have enough motivation after losing two games to the Senators, which is embarrassing enough, but they’re also playing their first game here after the firing of Claude Julien. The move may not have made much difference to a team that was going nowhere, but Montreal’s a team with serious playoff aspirations that carries a solid record into this game. You have to figure the move is one that will get the players attention and likely give them a stark reminder of how important every game is in this shortened season. Long-term, there are reasons to like the Canadiens here, and coming off the coaching move and a better offensive effort, I think there’s reason to chase them on the moneyline at fair odds for this NHL betting pick.


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Bonus: Penguins vs. Capitals Under 6.5 goals (-114) — DraftKings

Terrible defensive start for both of these teams has given way to more sane play. The Penguins could not stop the puck from going in their own net to save their life early in the season, but they have gotten far better play from Tristan Jarry of late, as he has stopped 84 of the last 89 shots he’s faced over the last three games (all Penguins wins). Washington’s Vitek Vanecek has also picked it up of late, and both teams rank in the bottom 12 in scoring chances against while also ranking outside the top 15 in expected goal rate on offense. The number seems too big for this one, and the under here looks solid.


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