The final race, in the round of eight, commences this Sunday at Martinsville in the Xfinity 500. Thus, let’s discuss this week’s outright favorites, potential top-10 finishes, parlays, match bets, and other NASCAR best bets in this Sunday’s race before the championship in Phoenix next week.
Xfinity 500 NASCAR Betting Picks & Odds Today
Outright Favorites
Judging by the way the betting public is going, most betters would have no idea that Martin Truex Jr. (+400) is this week’s favorite at BetMGM.
NASCAR Xfinity 500 betting at @BetMGM
Highest Ticket%
• Kyle Larson 19%
• Chase Elliot 9%
• Martin Truex, Jr. 8%Highest Handle%
• Larson 78%
• Truex, Jr. 4%
• Brad Keselowski 3%Biggest Liabilities
• Larson
• Truex, Jr.
• Ryan Newman— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) October 28, 2021
This is quite the divergence in how a book feels versus the public, considering the 74% discrepancy between Larson’s handle percentage and that of Truex. Furthermore, it’s not like BetMGM set Larson as a close second to Truex — that honor belongs to Denny Hamlin (+600). This has the feel of the public chasing a hot driver, coming off his third-straight victory, not realizing that this weekend’s race won’t mirror anything close to what happened at Kansas, Texas, or the Charlotte Roval. Obviously, the Roval was a road course but Kansas and Texas were both 1.5-mile intermediate tracks utilizing the 550-horsepower package.
This week’s action will see Martinsville use the high-horsepower aero package, a package that Larson has won in but not at tracks that correlate to Martinsville. The four best tracks to compare Martinsville to are Phoenix, Richmond, and New Hampshire — Larson’s finishes go 7-18-7-6 in those four races. That’s on top of the fifth he scored at Martinsville back in the spring at a track he’s historically struggled at with an average finish of 21st dating back to the fall race of 2016. Yes, he’s in better equipment and yes he’s finished top-10 in four of the five races used in the Race Sheets. That said, that still does not compute to his absurd handle number or having 19% of all tickets.
What does make sense is Truex Jr. leading the outright board. While his victory in the spring came late as he led just the final 20 laps, but it’s part of three wins in the past four races at the Paper Clip. At this year’s Martinsville corollary tracks, listed above, Truex owns two other wins at Phoenix and Richmond. In a fifth-place finish at Richmond, Truex led the second-most laps and at New Hampshire, rallied back to 12th after suffering early contact with the wall when he spun out during the rain.
A potential darkhorse, although his odds wouldn’t suggest it, would be the aforementioned Hamlin. Despite his best finish at Martinsville, over the past 10 races here being second back in the fall race of 2018, he has consistently shown up with either the fastest or second-fastest car at one-mile or shorter tracks this season. Judging by total speed rankings just once has Hamlin not had a top-two fastest car in these six races.
Potential Top-10 Finishes
The odd story of 2021 has been seeing Ross Chastain struggle, for the most part, at intermediate tracks. However, when racing at track using the high horsepower package (which should be a disadvantage to a mid-tier team), Chastain has found success. Notably, in the past two corollary races to Martinsville (New Hampshire & Richmond), Chastain has finished back-to-back in the top 10. Currently, Chastain’s odds to finish in the top-10 once more sit at +300. Speaking of drivers who have shown better splits in the 750 horsepower package, Aric Almirola makes sense at his smaller +240 odds. Almirola legitimately raced his way through the field winning at New Hampshire, finished sixth in the first Richmond event, and finished seventh here last fall.
NASCAR Best Bets, Parlays & Match Bets for the Xfinity 500
The following is an interesting list of parlays, match bets, and group bets for this Sunday’s race:
- Ryan Blaney – top five (-105)
- Best Finish Position: Joey Logano -110 over Brad Keselowski
- Best Finish Position: Ryan Blaney -125 over Kyle Busch
- Best Finish Position: Austin Dillon -105 over Bubba Wallace
- Best Finish – Group Betting: Chris Buescher +280 over Bubba Wallace, Austin Dillon, and Daniel Suarez
- Best Finish – Group Betting: Joey Logano +260 over Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, and Kyle Busch
- Best Finish – Group Betting: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +260 over Ryan Newman, Chase Briscoe, and Erik Jones
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